https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...im-surge-could-sink-kamala-harris/ar-AA1qWT7C How Jill Stein's Muslim Surge Could Sink Kamala Harris Jill Stein told Newsweek she cherishes the traction she's gaining among Muslim American voters—support that could damage Vice President Kamala Harris in November. Recent polls show Stein ahead of Harris among Muslim voters in several battleground states, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, giving her Green Party a potentially pivotal role in swinging the election away from Harris in favor of former President Donald Trump. "We're grateful for the strong support of Muslim voters who share with us the determination to end genocide in Gaza, and the injustice faced by our Muslim friends," Stein told Newsweek in a statement. "We urge all people of conscience to resist the propaganda telling you to hold your nose and vote for genocide. If you vote for genocide, you are actively consenting to it and enabling it. Don't let them talk you out of your humanity." https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/...nd-neck-among-muslim-american-voters-survey-0 US elections 2024: Jill Stein leads with Muslim-American voters in three swing states, survey shows The Democratic and Green party candidates each command close to a third of the Muslim-American vote Green Party candidate Jill Stein leads Kamala Harris among Muslim-American voters in the three key swing states of Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin, according to a new poll. Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris and Jill Stein are the leading candidates in this year’s presidential election among Muslim-American voters, according to data released by the Council on American Islamic Relations (Cair), the nation’s leading voice on Muslim civil liberties. https://arabamericannews.com/2024/0...y-candidate-jill-stein-over-harris-and-trump/ Poll: American Muslims in Michigan prefer Green Party candidate Jill Stein over Harris and Trump Posted: Saturday 09.14.2024 2:17 pm The Arab American News A new poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed a surprising rise in popularity for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein among Muslim voters in Michigan. The poll found that 40 percent of Muslim American voters in Michigan support Stein, compared to 18 percent for Republican candidate Donald Trump and 12 percent for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
I used Hillary Clinton's election day final aggregate polling which had her 3.2 points ahead of Donald Trump.
Information on aggregate national polling over time for the 2016 Presidential race can be found here - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
I use Real Clear Politics.Their average was closer to the final results than Five Thirty Eight. As is the case of Real Clear Politics,Kamala Harris's Five Thirty Eight lead over Trump is less than Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump. Hillary Clinton's Five Thirty Eight lead over Trump was 3.9.Kamala Harris's Five Thirty Eight lead over Trump is 2.7. How Democrats are so confident when Harris is polling lower than Hillary Clinton and much lower than Joe Biden is a head scratcher to me.
So your entire analysis is based on Muslim votes in Michigan? That's all? How is the Jewish poll support in swing states?
None of this accounts for the factor Nate Silver was talking about, unfavorables and poll support collapsing because of the Comey letter.
No.My analysis is based on Harris polling lower than Obama,Biden and Clinton overall.Harris polling 10 points lower than Obama,Biden and Clinton with black voters.Trump polling 25% with some black voters.Cornel West and Jill Stein polling 2-3%. 50% of young voters having an unfavorable view of Harris.Harris with a 2.2 point lead when the last 3 elections the Democrat won they needed to win the popular vote by 4 points or more.Harris with a 2.2 point lead while Trump outperformed the 2020 polls by 2.7 points.Harris currently having a 14 electoral college vote polling lead while Biden had a 100 electoral college vote polling lead in 2020.Stein leading with Muslims in Michigan,Wisconsin and Arizona when those races were won by razor thin margins the last 2 elections when Democrats had big leads with Muslims etc.
Trump's unfavorables were higher than Clinton's.After the so called polling collapse Hillary still had the lead,and it was higher than the lead Harris has now.