Polling methodology has been adjusted since 2016 to account for the trump effect (people not admitting they will vote for him). That’s why the polls were a lot more accurate in 2020. Too complex for my brain: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/
It says something special about a candidate when voters are too embarrassed to admit they will vote for him.
Trump outperformed the polls by 2.7 and 2.9 points in 2020.He outperformed state polling by 27 electoral votes. If its the same this year Harris's current 2.2 lead means she's behind in the popular vote. Biden needed a 7.2 point lead in the polls to beat Trump.
Really? Pollsters will beat them up? Then and there? Right through their phone? Or will they send a couple of knee-breakers to their door? Those damn pollsters. Who knew. Meanwhile, those MAGAs are real alphas, eh?
i think electoral votes are less correlated to national polling because of the winner take all in each state. State by state, Harris is winning most battlegrounds. I suspect her lead will grow. Betting markets are moving towards Harris every day. It's now 53 vs 45 on RealClearPolling. After the debate it was 51 - 47; since then RealClearPolitics has taking out PredictIt which has Harris at +12.