Hillary Clinton's aggregate polling lead was 3.2 on election day 2016. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton Kamala Harris's current aggregate polling lead is 1.9. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris President Biden needed a 7.2 polling lead to beat Donald Trump in 2020. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden Cornel West and Jill Stein are likely going to be a bigger problem than Democrats are anticipating.Jill Stein received 1.07 % of the vote in 2016.Cornel West and Jill Stein are currently polling at 1% each. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/...nd-neck-among-muslim-american-voters-survey-0 US elections 2024: Jill Stein leads with Muslim-American voters in three swing states, survey shows The Democratic and Green party candidates each command close to a third of the Muslim-American vote Green Party candidate Jill Stein leads Kamala Harris among Muslim-American voters in the three key swing states of Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin, according to a new poll. Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris and Jill Stein are the leading candidates in this year’s presidential election among Muslim-American voters, according to data released by the Council on American Islamic Relations (Cair), the nation’s leading voice on Muslim civil liberties. https://arabamericannews.com/2024/0...y-candidate-jill-stein-over-harris-and-trump/ Poll: American Muslims in Michigan prefer Green Party candidate Jill Stein over Harris and Trump Posted: Saturday 09.14.2024 2:17 pm The Arab American News A new poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed a surprising rise in popularity for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein among Muslim voters in Michigan. The poll found that 40 percent of Muslim American voters in Michigan support Stein, compared to 18 percent for Republican candidate Donald Trump and 12 percent for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Its looking like 2016 all over again.
Trump last chance was stock market crash. With rate cut we got not likely. Harris will indeed be our next POTUS.
Trump Suddenly Behind in Must-Win Pennsylvania, Four New Polls Show As new high-quality polls show Kamala Harris ahead, a veteran Democratic operative from the Keystone State explains what the path to victory looks like—and what could still go wrong. https://newrepublic.com/article/186...ind-must-win-pennsylvania-four-new-polls-show
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4891320-harris-debate-swing-state-polls/ Harris debate performance falls short of moving the needle in swing states by Alex Gangitano - 09/21/24 5:00 PM ET Vice President Harris was widely seen by voters as the clear winner of her debate against former President Trump, but that sentiment has failed to move the needle in key battleground states where the presidential nominees are still neck-and-neck heading into November. Harris’s debate performance has been hailed in the nearly two weeks since it occurred, with voters in several surveys, including those conducted that evening, believing she is better at staying calm under pressure, more intelligent and has higher moral integrity than Trump. But in the nearly two dozen polls conducted since the match-up, Harris’s slight lead over Trump nationally and in swing states grew by less than one percentage point and, in some states, Trump’s lead grew, albeit by razor-thin margins. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4889632-latest-polls-white-house-race/ 5 takeaways from the latest flurry of Harris-Trump polls by Niall Stanage - 09/20/24 6:00 AM ET Trump has plenty of reasons for hope Trump and his supporters need not be too disconsolate about the findings from the latest polls. While overall there has been the appearance of a small trend toward Harris, it’s nowhere close to definitive. The debate, though it may have helped the vice president by 1 or 2 points, hasn’t come close to transforming the race. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday found the race to be tied nationwide among likely voters, with Trump up 1 point among all registered voters. A Fox News poll indicated Harris holds a narrow 2-point lead in both categories. Team Trump can also take encouragement from several swing-state polls themselves, including a series from The Hill and Emerson College. The Emerson polls have Trump up by 1 point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, suggesting the former president could again demolish chunks of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” The Emerson polls also have Trump up by 3 points in Georgia and by 1 point in Arizona, both states that President Biden carried in 2020. Meanwhile, a Marist poll in Pennsylvania has the race there exactly tied — quite a contrast from surveys from Quinnipiac University and the New York Times/Siena College that have Harris up by 5 points and 4 points, respectively.
After newly released polls Kamala Harris's real clear politics average lead is 2.2. That is 1 point lower than Hillary Clinton's election day lead in 2016 and 5 points lower than Joe Biden's election day lead in 2020. In real clear politics state polling Kamala Harris has a 14 vote electoral college lead.Joe Biden's election day electoral college lead was 100. Donald Trump outperformed real clear politics average in the last 2 elections,by 2.5 points in 2016 and 2.9 points in 2020. Donald Trump outperformed real clear politics average electoral map in the last 2 elections,by a net 71 electoral votes in 2016 and a net 26 electoral votes in 2020. The last 3 presidential elections Democrats won they had to win the popular by over 4 points,by 7 points in 2008,4 points in 2012 and 4 points in 2020. I think its very unlikely Kamala Harris will win the popular vote by 4 points.Her polling average lead is only 2.2 and Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. Stein and West are polling at a combined 2 points,all their votes will come from left wing voters,many from those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020. For the first time ever the Green Party candidate is leading the Democrat with Arab voters in many in critical swing states with significant Arab populations like Michigan,Wisconsin and Arizona. That is likely to be devastating to Kamala Harris in those states.
Kamala Harris Has Biggest Favorability Jump Since George W. Bush After 9/11 https://www.thedailybeast.com/kamal...vorability-jump-since-george-w-bush-after-911 Vice President Kamala Harris got some very welcome news on Sunday in the form of a new NBC News poll that found her leading Donald Trump by five points nationally. But perhaps the most significant finding in the survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted from Sept. 13-17 is her massive increase in popularity since taking over for Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee in July. Compared to July, when Harris had a 32 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval rating (nearly identical to Biden), the new poll finds 48 percent of respondents view her positively and 45 percent negatively. The 3-point net positive approval stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s net negative 13-point result that has remained static over the same period. As NBC News’ national political correspondent—and data geek—Steve Kornacki and Meet the Press host Kristen Welker explained on Sunday, that 16-point turnaround is the largest favorability increase for any politician NBC has measured since George W. Bush after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. “We were seeing numbers like this for years for Kamala Harris,” Kornacki said of her previous figures, “now you’re seeing a very different story.” Also speaking on Meet the Press, political analyst Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, pointed out that the new polling shows Harris “is seen as the more likely victor,” which she said means the narrative “has shifted appreciably to Harris' benefit.” Meanwhile, The New York Times’ chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, called the new NBC survey arguably Harris’ “best poll result since the debate,” and “not just because she’s up 5 points,” but “because it’s the kind of poll (the kind of poll once called the ‘gold standard’ a decade ago) that hadn’t produced a good national result for her in a while.” When third-party candidates were added in, Harris advantage over Trump actually jumped to 6 points, 47 percent to 41 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2 percent, Jill Stein at 2 percent and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1 percent. And yet, the Harris team is not taking anything for granted. In response to the poll results, which still fall within the margin of error, top Harris campaign adviser Brian Fallon tweeted, “Still an underdog in this race.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/22/harris-trump-polls-debate-00180405 How the debate didn't boost Harris, according to our polling expert By Steven Shepard 09/22/2024 04:39 PM EDT Kamala Harris didn’t get much of a post-debate bounce. Instead of taking a clear lead over Donald Trump, the polls have shifted only slightly in the vice president’s favor — especially in the battleground states — even though voters overwhelmingly crowned her the winner of the high-stakes showdown. It’s nowhere near enough to change the underlying reality: Harris and Trump are still on a collision course for a very close finish in November. The debate was a huge chance for Harris to prove her mettle on stage with Trump, facing off for the first and likely last time. And by all measures she exceeded expectations, with large majorities calling her the stronger candidate on stage. In a New York Times/Siena College poll, two-in-three likely voters, 67 percent, said she did well at the debate; just 40 percent said the same of Trump. And a huge swath of voters saw Harris’ decisive victory: Some 67 million Americans watched, on track to be the second-biggest TV audience for a single event this year — behind only the Super Bowl. But surveys point to just a slight Harris bump, with national polls showing the Democrat’s lead has grown by about 1 percentage point since the day of the debate — even including national polls from NBC News and CBS News on Sunday giving Harris a mid-single-digit lead. Across three major polling averages, Harris’ national lead — which ranged between 1.1 and 2.5 points on Sept. 10 — is now between 2.2 and 3 points, after Sunday’s new surveys were added. There’s also been an avalanche of battleground state data released over the past few days showing an even more modest improvement for Harris. Dive into the seven core states, and it’s clear that Harris’ lead is still remarkably small and fragile — particularly considering how pollsters have underestimated Trump in recent elections. In all, Harris has average leads of 1 point or greater in only two battleground states. In the other five, at least one polling average shows the race within a single point.
Hillary Clinton actually led by a larger margin.2024 looks more like 2016 than 2020. Hillary Clinton did have high unfavorability ratings,but Donald Trumps was even higher and he still won.