Nearly half of Republicans say they won’t accept the results of the presidential election if their candidate loses, and 14% of them say they would “take action to overturn” the results, USA Today reports.
A new Morning Consult poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally, 51% to 45%. Key takeaway: “Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials.”
It reminds me of the 2016 presidential polls between Clinton and Trump. Perhaps MAGAs do not answer polls.
Clinton led by a smaller margin and had high unfavorability ratings, 2020 is a more apt comparison. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
Three new Quinnipiac polls of likely voters: Pennsylvania: Harris 51%, Trump 45% Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 45% Wisconsin: Harris 48%, Trump 47% Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Three crucial swing states wave a red flag at the Trump campaign. The GOP’s most ‘go to’ attack strategies against Democrats on immigration and the economy may be losing momentum. Likely voters now see little daylight, in most cases, between Harris and Trump on who can best handle those key issues.”
Kamala Harris Jumps to Record 6-Point Lead Over Trump in New Poll https://www.thedailybeast.com/kamal...t-lead-over-trump-in-new-morning-consult-poll Vice President Kamala Harris has claimed a six-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday. The margin is a record for Harris so far in the presidential race. The widening gap between the two candidates, which now sits at 51 to 45, seems to reflect a shift in public opinion after Harris’ dominant debate performance a week ago. Most polls before the debate had Trump and Harris essentially tied. Morning Consult’s analysis of its own poll noted the key demographics in which support for Harris is surging. “Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials,” it said. The poll excluded respondents who said they were less than an eight out of 10 in terms of their likelihood to vote in November. Read it at Axios
Donald Trump Suffers Major Blow in Top Election Forecast https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...jor-blow-in-top-election-forecast/ar-AA1qI2Us Former President Donald Trump dropped below a 40 percent chance of an election victory for the first time on Tuesday, according to a forecast by a major polling aggregator. FiveThirtyEight's election forecast gave the Republican candidate a 39 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, after a slate of strong polling for Vice President Kamala Harris boosted her odds to greater than 60 percent. Previously, Trump had been performing close to the margin of error between the two candidates. When the model first relaunched following the replacement of President Joe Biden, it gave Trump a 41 percent chance of winning, which was rising steadily before the ABC debate on September 10. Since then, Harris has received strong polls both nationally and in key swing states that have boosted her chances. However, FiveThirtyEight's model weighs surveys by geographical region, so while they show Harris doing well in Iowa, which is in the Midwest, she is unlikely to carry the state itself. The model also uses a combination of polling and "fundamentals," which are long-term factors known to influence voting behavior, such as the economy. These are similar to the "13 keys to the White House" popularized by historian Allan Lichtman, known as the Nostradamus of U.S. elections due to his track record predicting the results, who is currently predicting a Harris victory in November. (More at above url)
Even Wall Street sees Harris winning the election. Harris victory seen as most likely election outcome, according to CNBC Fed Survey https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/harris-trump-election-cnbc-fed-survey-economists.html Some of the top U.S. economists and fund managers now believe Vice President Kamala Harris will win the November presidential election against Donald Trump, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey. Forty-eight percent of respondents forecast a Harris victory, while 41% see Trump winning the White House. The result marks a shift from late July’s survey, when 50% of respondents said they expected a Trump victory, and only 37% believed Harris would be elected. More respondents in the September survey said they thought Trump would be better for the stock market and the economy, but that Harris would be better for the country as a whole. (More at above url)
Data guru who correctly called 2020 election predicts a shock landslide for this candidate https://www.silive.com/politics/202...cts-a-shock-landslide-for-this-candidate.html While the polls show a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, a data scientist said that one candidate could actually be headed toward a landslide victory. Thomas Miller, from Northwestern University, is predicting that Harris will overwhelmingly defeat Trump on Nov. 5. “It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” Miller told Fortune magazine. Miller, who accurately predicted that Joe Biden would defeat Trump in 2020, uses info from betting markets instead of traditional polls. He believes that polls don’t accurately reflect often swiftly changing voter dynamics because the surveys only sample a small number of respondents and often take days to be published. “Polls are a snapshot of the past,” Miller said. “The odds-on betting sites are a map of the future.” He said that betting markets can make for better predictors because people wager their own money and because the wagering sites update in real time. Eric Zitzewitz, a professor of Economics at Dartmouth College, told Newsweek, “Prediction markets normally forecast the odds of a candidate winning the election, whereas polling provides a forecast of their share of the vote.” He said, “One advantage of prediction markets is that they are forward-looking. For instance, after Harris won the debate, the markets moved immediately in her direction, correctly expecting that post-debate polls would as well. The same happened, in the opposite direction, after the Trump-Biden debate.” Miller in 2020 used PredictIt, the largest political betting site in the U.S., to track odds in a number of voting jurisdictions. His model, which includes data from the last 16 presidential elections, converts betting prices into popular vote and Electoral College projections. He missed Biden’s Electoral College count by just 12 votes four years ago. PredictIt on Thursday showed Harris with a 57% chance of winning, which under Miller’s model would give her 57% of the popular vote. That could translate into 400 votes in the Electoral College, with 270 needed to win the White House. If these numbers hold, Trump could face an “absolute rout,” Miller said, similar to the 1964 race, when Democratic President Lyndon Johnson got 486 electoral votes to 52 for Republican Barry Goldwater. Miller’s model suggests that Harris would not only win swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, but could also potentially flip traditionally Republican states.