Vantage Data which does poll aggregation similar to RCP and 538 is predicting a Democratic blow-out in Presidential and Senate elections. Vantage is different than RCP & 538 in that it typically offers paid access to it polling data which comes from 400,000 respondents. Recently it has been offering a large portion of its information and insights for free. Here is a recent summary article. The Blowout No One Sees Coming https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1 Note -- that I am not necessarily buying into their perspective on a blow-out in this election but it is still an interesting analysis to read.
Harris has 4-point lead over Trump in final PBS News/NPR/Marist election poll https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...mp-in-final-pbs-news-npr-marist-election-poll
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball forecasts Kamala Harris winning the electoral vote over Donald Trump, 276 to 262. “If Harris does win, it might be an indicator that the last days of a campaign can matter, even at a time when so many vote before Election Day. We are not going to recount the various headlines from Trump and his allies over the past 10 days or so, but ask yourself: has Trump closed strong in this race? We don’t really think so, nor do many of the people we’ve talked to in the past several days.” “He also, in our view, has been more prominent down the stretch than Harris has been, which may not be helpful to him—this is mostly impressionistic, to be sure, but think back to when Trump won in 2016: The focus late in that campaign was Hillary Clinton’s emails and her problems.” They also have Republicans winning the Senate with 52 seats and Democrats barely winning the House with 218 seats.
A new Generation Lab poll of college students finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by more than 50 percentage points in the seven swing states, 76% to 24%.
Jon Ralston predicts that Kamala Harris will narrowly win Nevada. “I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close.” He also believes Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) will win re-election comfortably.
I keep seeing this myth that the polling underestimated Democratic support in 2022. That's not true at all. The polling was more accurate in 2022 than ever. In fact, it still overestimated Democratic support by +.8%. It was the media that was expecting a red wave, because of inflation. They were used to the incumbent party getting clobbered. However, the polls never showed one. This was obviously due to Roe v. Wade being overturned. In swing states, Democrats kind of overperformed, because of exceptionally bad candidates with Herschel Walker being the worst. However, the polls were way off in favor of the Democrats in both 2016 and 2020.