Here is the model, highlight in yellow shows Silver's current national polling for Harris with corresponding probability: Harris needs to 3% ahead nationally to have 75% chance of winning the EC. At only 1% ahead Trump has a 85% chance. Silver has Harris +1 but RCP and TIPP have Trump +1, which would give Trump an even bigger EC probability of 95%.
Its not my model, it's Nate Silvers model. Harris needs to be +3 to be favourite to be favourite to win. Hillary could not beat trump in the EC even when she was more than 2% a head in the actual results.
You are interpreting it as Trump and Harris scoring equal on the popular vote. Biden won by 7MM. Regardless, Trump cannot win if he loses PA.
Yes he can, he can lose PA but still win if he wins Wisconsin. Halperin goes into details in this video:
cool story, bro. Silver is NOT stating that Trump has an 85% chance of winning. There is no way that Trump gets within 3MM of Harris' popular vote total. Whoever wins PA wins the election. SPED post.
The most likely pop-vote outcome is +3-4 Kamala, but Harris cannot win without PA (if loses GA, NC). 156*0.03 = 4.6M net to Harris. Meaningless is she loses PA, GA, NC.
Very few polls have her +3. And none have her +4. It could happen, she could end up +3 on the day, but the probability is about 15%.
156MM votes across electorate. 3% popular vote win. Biden won by nearly 5%. Regardless, it will likely come down to <100K votes in PA.