I consider myself a permabear but I've had fucking too much. Look at this friggin' market. The government practically bent backward to give everything that the market asked for. It asks for an interest rate cut, it gets it. It then asks for more, it gets it. If that weren't enough, it asks for a bailout, then another bailout, and then a systemwide bailout. It gets the whole fucking deal and some more. It then wants the whole fucking world to bail out its problem and, believe it or not, it gets even that. But now it wants Uncle Sam to bail out the Walmarts and the Microsofts of the world!
I think your time frame is too short. we do have very serious issues that I don't know if we can resolve.
Too short? On 10/11/2007, $SPX hit a all-time high of 1576. Exactly 1 year later (10/10/2008), $SPX hit 836. And the so-called recession hasn't even stepped on the accelerator yet!
and the stock market doesn't mean the u.s. is insolvent. remember that this pullback in the market only brought us back to the historic average p/e of around 13 for the s&p 500. let's also not forget that p/e's were around 7 for the s&p 500 back in '82.
Ya see, to actually default on the 30-year T-bond, Uncle Sam would need to take a major blow. Hypothetically, even if the stock market goes belly up, the Treasury market will likely weather the catastrophe because everyone will scramble to take cover under the protection of T-bond. That will in itself buy ample time for Uncle Sam. Or will it?
I have yet to hear that the fundamentals are the driving force behind this latest turn of twisted events. The P/E could dive to 0 for all I care and it wouldn't make any difference, or so I'm told loudly by this crazy market.
No, we will never default or be bankrupt. However, our currency could become about as worthless as Zimbabwe's if we don't get control of our spending and borrowing.