I was prompted to post this poll by the question being posed in the "Nasdaq bottoms today" thread. Note that I'm asking about S&P cash index levels- not Nasdaq. Honestly, I don't concern myself too much with direction- all I need is volatility. Still, it's always interesting to gauge sentiment...
Will the S&P 500 index drop below the October low in 2003 ? My guess is: Not likely. Even if it touches the October low, it may rebound immediately. Most US companies are waving the white flags. They are doing what they have done ten years ago to get them out of trouble, namely cost cutting. Tons of people have been laid off, but at the same time, the survivors are demanded to work harder to generate the same or even higher productivity. Of course, all bets will be off, if there is another major terrorism attack or the war against Iraq really goes wrong.
nobody knows for sure. there are too many things going on right now non market related that could change the outcome at a moments notice.
Yes, definitely. Not only a highly adrenalized economy with bad glands, but two war fronts and terrorists thrown in as well. The economic impact of just one more major terrorist attack would send our economy and psychology reeling. Most importantly the dollar is losing its glamour (positive for exports at least) and will cause interest rates to rise to stabilize it. If that happens, the large debt taken on from low rates will cause belt tightening and further contraction of the economy. In addition, our manufacturing base is constantly being undermined with jobs going overseas, which will eventually eliminate the middle class as this destruction of jobs only benefits the owners of these companies. Not to mention most states are WAY over budget and will be cutting spending severely. This will have a further drag on the economy as these transfer payments won't be entering the economy as in the past.
Alright, if yes it will be, so what? What are you gonna do about it? Are you sure you can profit or not lose at least from this prediction? Do you have guts to commit a decision based on such a prediction? The same questions if it won't?
For those of us with retirement funds its nice to get other opinions on market direction one year out. As far as making money off these types of predictions, yes, the last two years I've taken a bearish stance with my retirement and made out very well. As far as my daytrading, it has no affect.
Alright, talking about investment, I wonder what made you made the right decision in the pass two years. I like to listen your success. Which side did you listen to, bullish opinions or bearish opinions? Was one side less stronger or less resonable than the other side? Or any other reasons. Please tell me the secret. I have to work on my retirement too. Thanks.
Well, it is "winter" in the financial world... and some think this winter will last until 2010 !!? :eek: