Are we at the top or just about to breakthrough? Thoughts/comments? My inclination is that being election year, we'll have a breakthrough in October (typical breakthrough month) followed by selling spurred by profit taking in Dec as funds move to lock in this year's gains.
No valuations at these levels, global economy is weak, volume is extremely low, wait for the price turn in the weekly and then short.
price turn in the weekly? in the weekly chart?/ i never understand.. people always talk in time frames like daily weekly 5 minute etc.. these are standardized charts i guess? like a daily chart.. is each bar is a day? etc..
Ya each bar is 1 week (Monday to Friday), lower timeframes tend to have too much noise, but when the weekly and especially the monthly turn, tops and temp tops are usually created.
I think the S&P may bounce around in the 1400-1430ish range but we won't be seeing anything higher, take away the Fed's (your/our) stimulus money and what happens to the rally? People will speculate on QE3 to death, but when they get nearer the previous top around 1500, they'll ask thrmselves "is this a business boom or a speculation bubble? Should I really keep chasing thin air THIS HIGH?" Aaaaaand...it's gone.
Sell! This rally has no legs. I'll be in awe if the S&P makes it to 1500 before it tops, last time that rally had legs, this time you're floating on a cloud of QE.
I agree with FoN about weekly charts. I find them much more useful for seeing Trends, Support & Resistance Levels, Topping Formations, etc. The $SPX touched a New High this week for the current 41 month Cyclical Bull Market (1426.68 vs. 1422.38). So until the Higher Low of 1266.74 is taken out the Bull Run is still on, though it's a bit long in the tooth. But it's very news driven too, of course. Bernanke can keep it going with some Q3 action to help the Dems win, so he can keep his job - assuming he wants to. But if the Ruskies start dropping some nukes over by Syria, all bets are off!
Yep... The weekly is awesome... The month is good confirmation but the turns lag a lot half the time. Eg... When the monthly candle engulfs down most of the move is over. I'm not a trend trader... Trend trading generally has low odds... 40% win rate or so, but it makes money because the gains are huge vs the losses.
Those pastel charts are wild! Have to get used to them. I've done my share of Swing Trading with stocks, and Day Trading with Mini Futures in the past. But that's all too stressful for me now (in my 61st Orbit around the Sun), so these days I'm only doing 2-10 month trades via Single Options and Vertical Spreads. Thus the preference for weekly charts. Good Trading!