Poll: SPX range breakout

Discussion in 'Trading' started by opt789, Dec 12, 2007.

Which way will the SPX break the current range?

Poll closed Dec 19, 2007.
  1. The SPX will close above 1565.15 first, within the next 2 months

    7 vote(s)
  2. The SPX will close below 1406.70 first, within the next 2 months

    8 vote(s)
  3. I think we will be range bound for the next 2 months

    5 vote(s)
  4. I don't know, and I think sentiment polls are stupid

    2 vote(s)
  1. Since we are almost exactly in the middle of our range in the SPX I figured it was time for a poll.
    On 8/15/07 we closed at 1406.70 (almost exactly tied with the 11/26/07 close of 1407.22) and on 10/9/07 we closed at 1565.15. The midpoint of the range is 1485.93 which is close enough to our close today of 1486.59.

    On a closing basis (not just intraday) which end of the range we will break first? The next Fed meeting is 7 weeks away that is why I chose a two month time frame.
  2. Ok, I got my poll to work.
    I voted that the SPX will break to the downside because I do not have faith that the Fed's actions and the Administration's sub-prime bailout will do enough to fix our current problems. One of the most troubling things I heard was UBS saying the value of its subprime holdings is "unknowable."
  3. I would appreciate any feedback from voters, especially anyone voting for new highs. I would like alternative points of view.
  4. Just voted and found the results interesting.

    7 v7 on the directional calls and 3 or so in range bound.

    Looks like the poll is very balanced thus far, very reflective of the current market situation.

    I'd say we are data dependant right now :p

    Good Luck!
  5. Specifically, I think the lower level is too low. I do think we are going lower before higher, but probably not to those levels.

    I'm not so sure the highs are going to be all that spectacular, but there's a lot of shorting piling up, especially since the new short sale rules in July, and you know what happens when a trade gets to be a no-brainer.

    Good Luck!