Well Warren Buffet's folksy but essentially banal economic comments blew one mother of hole in the dear old DOW. Caveat: I don't play the trend (much more juice for me as a daily zero sum trader of the DOW). But on a view of things, I remain big time bullish on the DOW
I'm acting on the belief that we're in a 'stage 3' in the cycle, where everything is swinging up and down without a clear upward trend.
There are some concerning issues still with the US economy which could effect equity valuations. Company earnings are good, but we tend to base valuations on future performance nowadays. Some nice threads in the 'economics' section about this. The last 12 months rally after the Iraq-conflict buildup (with some exhausting losses for many) can be seen by some as a "revenge trading" rally, especially when considering the traumatic dot-com collapse as well. I think we are definitely in for some real profound change over the long haul. However, we're much too nice to have an off-the-cliff drop right now. See-sawing is always much nicer. On the other hand, Al-Qaeda could contribute to a change in that respect. I made a poll about Al-Qaeda's impact in http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=29691
Come on guys....when was the last time a market made a top and went straight down without being re-tested a single time??? Go look at your Dow charts. Look at the last long monster run durring the bubble. You got many opportunities to bail. Markets dont turn on a dime. We will touch new highs again this year at least once. High probability. The fact that everyone suddenly got so bearish makes me want to buy This is the first rinse cycle of the WEAKEST hands. peace axeman