you recently posted: "I did use 3 variables: P, V, and A/D. In fact, I used Spydertrader's Wealthlab code to do the scoring (as I've pointed out many times before). As for the rest of your comments, thank you. I'll test them and report back. I have no problem with those conditions because they can be derived from the diagram on page 7 and are not in the same "after-the-fact" spirit as previous criteria." Let me suggest that you posted an "equity curve". this curve was posted along with the information that all trades were the same hold duration. That duration was one of several that you chose from. You think this is testing. That is fine. If you read the chart instructions, you will find that the exit is not predetermined on the chart for this type of skill level depicted on the chart. Try to think about when any trader makes an exit dependent on an entry with respect to time of entry for making money. Now, think about scoring and why scoring might be used to determine timing, timing of exits. Collect these thoughts and figure out why you posted an exit X days after entry for 24,000 trades. It is simply because you chose the value of X from a selection that you made up in the first place. The value of x was 5 as I recall. 5 days. For 400,000 runs us8ing a limited Universe the value of X turned out to be 8 as was proferred a long time before the computers were invented than do the runs. Where did the original 8 that ws offered come from. Well, it was part of a recommended range to consider. Try to reason through how your mind can drift about when considering how to back test 24,000 exits. Think about how you came to a standard deferral of an identical time for 24,000 trades. It does not have anything to do with scores or the three variables. With respect to 3x the daily H-L, I believe that you have a basis for rejecting my comments. I believe it is because you have a limited view of what the markets do as time passes. I have traded the markets since the DJIA was in the 350 range. As a consequence I have had the opportunity to witness and experience a lot of history being made. Today, I believe that it is possible for people to learn to make money and to avail themselves of the opportunity that is there and very evident. That is gone for you. That is the way it turned out for you and it turned out differently for me. I see the opportunity that is evident anbd I believe a person up to a certain point has that door still open. You can see post after post here by a spectrum of people who, themselves, have stepped up and closed the door on themselves and their future. Many many people will repeat their experience and your experience. What about others who happen along and observe that the markets are there, they have huge pools of capital in them and it is observable that someone somewhere is participating in extracting wealth from these pools. You believe that the cycles of stock activity do NOT follow the three variable system that I use to make money. I posted a chart of a 30 minute rendition of a typical day(s) during the half cycle of stock price and volume movement (literally using volume to trade the price movement of a stock from a Universe of high Beta stocks). I feel doing 2 1/2 day long half cycles with capital is a good way to trade streams of capital up to about 100,000 share streams (this is 2.5 million dollars per stream in the most active price range of high Beta stocks of high Q). That is a limitation per stream and it is very easy to have a dozen streams running in today's world. Each turn does an easy 10% per turn that is for sure. This is, roughly speaking, an ATS system by any standard. there are many kinds of people who understand this. They have a generic name. It is called rich. For you the incentive this represents becomes twisted into a many year long diatribe on me and my character and your expansive proof of how none of this is possible in any way. The PVT template is there and it has high utility. What is does for people who want to accomplish anything is make it possible for them to do just that. Imagine a group of people running about 200 stocks in a revolving portfolio using 200 streams of capital each of which is at a 2 to 3 million dollar level. They are taking excess profits out of the operation and using it to live and to help others solve specific problems. Now come to understand that this is happening as I type. The formality of it is not in a building or one town somewhere in a country. Where it is is simply surrounding you and in all the times zones as well. There are more than 200 stocks. there are thousands of streams that add up to millions and millions of dollars of dollars. Money is being made and some of it, daily finds its way to places that need money to get something done to help someone somewhere out of a problem not of their choosing. None of this is going to end and we lost track of its size a little after 1990. People put money in pools. There are local problems. I simply have a global arrangement whereby the money in the pools is extracted and it finds its way to where local problems need solving. I have simply spent my life, informally, making it possible to take money from one place and put it in another place. Someone says occasionally that if a person knows what he is doing, he can put it on one page. Take the chart I posted for the 30 minute fractal of stocks, print it and write across it the words: "To those persons in need: This ones for you" and sign it "regards, jack" or any other name a person using it may want to sign on it. We have a critical mass and this template works fairly easily now that the PC and software on platforms has caught up. As for SCT, there is leveraging of the template (paradigm). The pools are there. It is definitely a very scary experience to see the extraction. Having an office that has windows opening on a hallway is definitely mystery building as is running a group of rooms in a complex of some sort. Professional trading rooms in places like the MERQ can't envision how SCT works even when they see it for a few days. The embedded philosophy is pervasive and only an anomoly can be seen in the space when it goes on. Vendors cannot see or understand the commercialization of platforms for trading as yet (a couple of exceptions at CEO levels). It is not possible at Expos nor associated gatherings for people to see or understand the commodities template. Other expert traders can see it and they do have the standard reaction. That is what would be expected. I believe it is a good idea at such times to tweak the situation by offering a little something to those people as it pops into the space. It is always a nice thing to tag another trader with something. Some of you may notice that ZZ D 1 runs a little late; so tagging it with an "anticipator" would be the thing to do with David Boucher. Another set of dots ahead of the ZZ D 1 dots. I tagged Netto with a 6 MA volume tag for one of his training templates. I tagged Chris at Blox, at the FEB expo with the better signals on both sides of their "new" generator during the end of a introducing performance and it went off scale relatively speaking. There is no template that comes and goes in markets. Those that seem to do that were not templates in the first place. They were not valid in markets to begin with. At some point it becomes apparent that markets are people and they are just human behavior. Watch LO move as he spends his life. If you want to watch people move, pick those who know what is important. Long after money, comes stuff that is important. Look at where the release from money comes for people who are doing things that are important. I like the switch made by Deepak Chopra. Carter was cool too. So was gates and then Buffett who saddled up his money to Gates. After money it gets to be fun.
The very nature of how people like you (I am referring to your credentials in a personal profile) and me are accustomed to acquire beliefs about the world makes it extremely difficult to adopt provisional beliefs. A provisional belief that the market does not jump from one state to another, but moves in sequences and what's coming up as possibilities is telegraphed transparently in advance, is not the type of belief that can be adopted based on seeing a video or account statements. At least not for me. Your status as a moderator and your credentials inject a perception of credibility to your statement (as in "people may be led to believe that you actually know what you're talking about"). I am very pleased that you are trying to remain unbiased by using words: "I don't think.." or "as he talks about it".
Very convincing and inspirational examples of trading at different levels of SCT expertise! Can you share with us at what level you traded today? I am keen to learn what is practical to achieve given entry timing and commissions. Also I notice a few cases where one might have been tempted to stop out. Can you comment on the role of stops, if any, in practical trading using SCT? TIA! And thanks for sharing, this is amazing stuff!
Thanks for posting it. L1: From: YM 0950 eob decreased black volume following formation BO on increased red volume To: YM 1302 eob lateral movement on increased black volume To: YM 1544 eob decreasing black volume
Some people? 21% or 46 out of 173 Franz Shoar and MarketMonk had better numbers! And they didn't have the support of the moderators. Come on Jack, another 2000 word post or 2 before the nightcap! Work those numbers!!!!
I wonder what's the typical position size per trade being used by those that believe 3xATR is possible ??? I mean, I know a few ES traders that regularly trade with 20 - 50 contracts that never heard of JH nor know what a SCT is. Thus, wouldn't someone that trades 20 - 50 contracts have a different opinion about how much they can achieve via ATR analogies in comparison to someone that only trades 1 - 3 contracts. Simply, those that say it's possible must be trading some size as long as we are talking about real trading and not theory. Yes, in theory (on paper, backtest or hindsight analysis)... It's possible even for a 1 - 3 contract trader. However, in real trading conditions, I can only imagine someone that's trading large positions being able to do such if they are a consistent profitable trader. Mark
Mark in your experience have you personally known: ANYONE who traded $10k into $15 million within a year? ANYONE traded and achieved 3 * H-L profits day after day? ANYONE 'always in the market' day after day? And the list of Hershey claims is longer.... Not 'in theory or on paper' have you met anyone who has done, or even said that they have traded, with this level of success using any technology or system that you know of?