Poll: Is it humanly possible to capture 3x ATR everday?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by jsmith, Aug 20, 2007.

Is it humanly possible to capture 3x ATR everday?

  1. Yes

    64 vote(s)
    22.5%
  2. No

    221 vote(s)
    77.5%
  1. Wouldn't someone that trades 20 - 50 contracts have a different opinion about how much they can achieve via ATR analogies in comparison to someone that only trades 1 - 3 contracts.

    I'm just curious about the Poll here by the OP considering how position size should have impact on the poll results.

    Lets change the above question a little.

    For those in this thread that are profitable...

    A question set recently posed:

    "Lets pretend you suddenly had the account size to trade 20 - 50 ES contracts without violating your money management rules.

    Based upon your prior profitability level involving a few contracts...

    Hypothetically, can you achieve profits greater than the ATR when you go to 20 - 50 ES contracts for one trading day???

    However, realistically, based upon your actual performance level on small size position...

    Do you think you can maintain that same profit level when jumping to 20 - 50 contracts day after day after day???

    Ok girls and boys, be serious about trading for a few minutues and put aside your mud throwing battles to answer the above questions I've asked."

    Over the long run, trading below the capacity of the markets and up to five times the capacity is uncorrolated with performance of trading strategies like SCT (old approaches dressed up in new whatever).

    There are some transitional considerations.

    1. It is a requirement to "earn" the right to trade more cars as a routine operating and performance practice. See corporate scaling training and post MBA short courses at top tier universities (Ads in the Economist will give you the short course topics most conveniently). The current Jack Hershey at Wharton is not me.

    2. The transition from a few contracts to 50 contracts is known and tested in SCT. It involves:

    a. About 6 steps in additions of contracts.

    b. Dwell times at each of the levels.

    c. A requirement for "earning" the right to add contracts.

    Maturing to the expert level requires experience whose gaining is a function of time. Time is required to gain familiarity with market conditions which have a range of variability. the market does not throw out the sequence of learning conditions in a manner that can save time for gaining experience.

    Money experience is not transferable from one field to another. Learning money, as in Rich Dad, Poor Dad, is more than vicarious. In CW trading, that cited in almost all cases cited by the questioner, there is an emotional set that is contrary to advancing the number of cars and maintaining emotional balance. In fact, as may be seen by the prompting, context and framing of the Q's, the emotional burden is more what is on the table than performance issues.

    In the template underlying SCT and PVT, another emotional context and construct is established. In this paradigm the context is whether or not to extract the offer rather than any aspect of CW. There is little emotional change in comfort, support and confidence when it comes to deciding to open a valve to take more of the offer or not open the value to take more of the offer.

    From the beginning the T&S above 50 is showing and is the All T7S where the chicken feed flows. On the DOM there are four games played as well as the compartmentalized delta that shows on the units, tens, hundreds and thousands place holding on ten levels of bid/ask individually and as two changing five level sums. 20 to 50 contracts are not statistically significant in terms of any measures of these that are ordinarily made as time rate od chage stats that simulate calculus so well known in continuous functions. Thus there is nothing emotionally exciting interms of opening a valve with regard to this data feed, its modified degrees of freedom or the pace of the non stationary window movement in terms of progression, shrinkage or expansion as the window "breathes" so to speak.

    What a trader expersinces in doing money is more the novelty of making the same critical thinking effort and gaining a very large contast in the bottom line. In the 20 to 30 contract range the multiple experiences of making 100,000 dollars a day per quarter is the most memorable aspect of that part of a transition to 50 contracts which is the limit put on the table here by the poser and as a consequence of his life experiences....

    Yesterday and today a change occurred in the collective thinking of the active participants. what has been proffered by SCT is not considered by more poeple than before as a possibility. For some reason (it is the crayola penetration I observe) it is becoming appant that the market does offer the capital each day and it is maybe possible to consider that others are taking it. The 20% who are may be having an influence on the 80% who are not. The residence in the classes only goes in a unilateral direction after all and it always has been that way. the crieria for making a change is called "choice". Not choosing is very common throughout most trader's experiences.

    here is the common sequence:

    few...5......10....20....30....40.....50. 40 can be skipped.

    "earning" means just using profits to add contracts. you can add then as you earn them, but dwelling is important where shown above.

    Dwell time is a month or two months in seasons like Summer.


    As a person eases into the middle of this process he experiences 20 to 40K days ordinarily. When you are making 20 to 40K and you have to sweep on firdays to put capital in your stock streams, then youare experiencing the fact that you have to use partial fills for entries and exits on trades there too.


    I bought a sailboat in Greenwich with the proviso that it was collateralized by stock in street name in a tradable account. I wanted a boat and I wanted it to be free and I didn't want to interrupt using the money to make money. Over the two years I more than doubled the collateral and I constrained myself to the first three letters of the NYSE at first and gradually worked by way down to consecutive B's in the NYSE for the last third of the two year loan. the Fairfield county bank and Trust did not notice until the last day when I went in to do the paper work of selling some stock to pay the principal and to take posssion of the boat (US122, King's Cruiser made in Sweden). trading was comfortable, supported, and I had confidence as I played the NYSE list. remember Bullard, Bullava watch , etc... lol.

    This trading using SCT on the ES is not an intellectual nor emeotional effort of great challenge. As a person goes through the journals or keeps current, he is simply adding contracts as he makes money. He dwells on contract levels to soak up the market range of peformance. Great days occur once in a while (I like the recent 27FEB for example and last week). A 20 to 40 point single segment always makes it fun. Having 40 or 50 contracts running is nice too. If you have a couple of kids in college, you can relax and have a beer at the end of the day. Their credit cards will not matter until you have to replace a car they totalled getting soft drinks on an icey evening. life happens and with your account being swept on Fridays, you get to line up the week Sunday am and see where you're going for the next week.

    does anyone think I can penetrate Trader666 to get him to see that if the entry is 0 to 7 there is a coresponding exit called 4 to 3. lol. I don't think so. Is that mind wasted or isn't it???

    This was written during regular Tucson trading hours. Check the time stamp on the posting. My hiking shoes are top of the line and my denim shorts are designer as is my polo shirt. I rinsed (dust control) my V 12 yesterday when I cleaned my pool filter attached to my automatic solar system for heating and cooling (I have to cool it in the summer) and chemically balancing the pool.
     
    #111     Jun 10, 2008
  2. Everything is theoretical with Jack.. paper trader par excellence
     
    #112     Jun 10, 2008
  3. #113     Jun 10, 2008
  4. The telemarketer doesn't hurt your feelings.. you just need to know how to handle them :p
     
    #114     Jun 10, 2008
  5. #115     Jun 10, 2008
  6. Maybe the telemarketers didnt, but Jack must have. Lets see what he has to say on the matter. This mysterious PM from Jack oh so long ago that apparently has your panties tied in a bunch.

    Jack, please start your engines and inform us all just what transpired between you and Bluebolt (aka Trader28).

     
    #116     Jun 10, 2008
  7. #117     Jun 10, 2008
  8. jem

    jem

    it is amazing - the sales skill.

    I found myself salivating at the idea of having 40 contracts on at 50 points. Paying for college drinking a beer.


    Picture buying Real Estate and flipping it out for millions of dollars of profit.

    Then invest in income properties - have the properties pay for themselves. Pay the mortgage and then fund your retirement years as you peel of million dollar cash outs because the tenants paid for the properties.

    Jack could do this for you too. Any sales guy can.
     
    #118     Jun 10, 2008
  9. No, same recruitment policy, same lame product

    ps: you do exactly what you claim I do.. you spend more time talking about Hershey than I do.. then you don't even have the balls to admit you are using his system because it's a dog :p
     
    #119     Jun 10, 2008
  10. So basically this "intimate engagement" in your words is nothing more than the "same recruitment policy, same lame product" via a PM? LMFAO, THAT is what you hold your hat on? THAT is what you mean when you say "Jack took you on"??

    HA! This keeps getting better and better. I though maybe he PM'ed you and tore you a new one somehow and you are pissed about that or something. But you go to all this trouble just because he tried to recruit you many moons ago?? Give me a freaking break, that is the WORST excuse for internet stalking behavior I've heard yet :p

     
    #120     Jun 10, 2008