Very true. 80 : 20 Rule First 80% of the learning happens in first 20% of the time. Remaining 20% of the learning happens in the remaining 80% of the time. The beauty is the final 20% of the learning is actually UNLEARNING. Only open minded people can unlearn. Unfortunately less than 1% of traders have that open mind. This explains the massive failure rate in trading.
If not able to be profitable within 2 to 3 months, then it is unlikely that a trader will have success in this business.
Professions like medicine, engineering, law, financials, etc, take 5 or more years to study in college. When they get into job, does their first three months define their future ? If trading is as simple as swimming or car driving, then your logic may be appropriate. But trading is the study of three dimensions namely market psychology, business philosophy and personal attitude. It is very much a profession. Not just an arithmetic or logical skill. Trading is mastering of the three arts : psychology, philosophy and attitude.
This reminds me of this video: Japanese Day Trader Made $34M During Selloff Trading is all about part art, part science...in understanding how the broad market will move or behave on a daily basis
Apples and Oranges. If not successful in the first two or three months, the likelihood of any success is greatly reduced. Successful trading is extremely simple. Most traders will never be successful.
Buy1sell2...give us (since there's nothing to hide) an extremely simple method that leads to success and I will back test the hell out of it and display the results for all to see...only way to prove your claim. Anyway, I think you mean "successful trading CAN be extremely simple", since there's a high probability that some successful traders use complexity...you just had to continue with the ABSOLUTES again. You know this is why I give you so much shit sometimes...it's all the absolute claims you make.
Don't lose more than 2% of Total Liquid Net Worth (TLNW) on any one trade/idea and when right, let the trade run to maturity. This simple idea is what makes successful trading very easy. Most traders will never be successful.
This part is 100% true. The real challenge is in unlearning to size down to simplicity. Unlearning takes 5 times more duration than learning. Why ? A beginner is an unprofessional trader. What he acquires in the initial stages will be unprofessional knowledge and methods. By the time he acquires those initial knowledge they get into his subconsciousness and becomes a habit. To remove anything from the sub level of mind is going to be a time taking and cumbersome process. Transforming that unprofessional knowledge acquired initially will face resistance from subconsciousness. To overcome this hidden resistance, trader need to apply lot of creative force to override the old knowledge with more professional knowledge. This process of transformation needs hands on experience, experimenting and creative insights. Now, there are two routes to unlearning. First one is experience. Second one creativity. If a trader takes the experience route then he may take many many years to resolve the old knowledge and become profitable. On the other hand applying creativity (insights & intuition) will take considerably lesser time to do it. This poll results suggests that 40% of traders take a short creative route, while the remaining 60% take a long experience route.
IMO if a trader has clarity about what is favorable condition, he has to transform that knowledge to gain clarity about what is unfavorable condition. Once that is done then it will be easy for him to decide when to run the profit and when to cut the trade. The most challenging part is defining what is favorable condition. Because there are two different approaches to it. One is to focus primarily on making money. Second one is to prioritise on protecting the money. First approach is week since it lacks focus on the vulnerabilities of the market. Creative minds can make fortune while analytical minds are contended with peanuts as they cannot see the other side of the game. This game needs (creative) character than loads knowledge.