POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by billpritjr, Nov 14, 2005.

POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

  1. Single MA

    39 vote(s)
    22.9%
  2. Dual MA crossover

    50 vote(s)
    29.4%
  3. Trendline

    61 vote(s)
    35.9%
  4. N-day breakout

    20 vote(s)
    11.8%
  1. Trends don't exist until after the fact in non-stationary(random) series, which prices are according to statistical tests.

    Now, if you have a stationary/mean reverting series so that a long-term average does exist and the series has finite variance, then you can trade it all day long.

    Question is, once you have the stationary form, how to detecting turning points without false positives? Rolling regression looks promising..
     
    #481     Feb 13, 2006
  2. Drummond Geometry is similar to rolling regression. One uses a set of bar-based geometric projections combined with a simple moving average to detect potential turning points. Combined with trend maturity and deviation from a mean, one can filter some of the "false positives".
     
    #482     Feb 13, 2006
  3. Wow after all of that big talk on perfect and flawless, when it comes time to really prove it he backs out. That was sure a lot of hot air then that he spouted about a couple of months ago on proving his claims. It is not really shocking but makes you wonder if he started thinking he won't be able to back up all his claims. Hopefully if one of these "disagreements" comes up again someone will be there to remind him that he had the chance to prove himself but he backed out.
     
    #483     Feb 13, 2006
  4. ===============
    Sounds fine polestar.

    CME,OXPS,BOT,TRAD have been making higher highs,higher lows;
    classic uptrend,
    even if they are not uptrending to north star.

    However most of my derivatives were making weekly lows/again;
    close below 20day moving averages. And QQQQ/GOOG were not even able to uptrend past 50 dma. Lower lows again.
    :cool:
     
    #484     Feb 13, 2006

  5. hi easy,

    there are no studies to back up the claims. can TA be used succesfully in an artistic way by left brain tended traders?? there is no way to quantify this, but--- based on my experience i would say unequivically yes, when combined with good money management.

    best,

    surfer
     
    #485     Feb 13, 2006
  6. Cool. If half my brain is working Im better off than I thought.:)
     
    #486     Feb 13, 2006

  7. :D :D


    :)
     
    #487     Feb 13, 2006
  8. bvam1

    bvam1

    A better question to ask is, how do you determine the strength of a trend?
     
    #488     Feb 16, 2006