POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by billpritjr, Nov 14, 2005.

POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

  1. Single MA

    39 vote(s)
    22.9%
  2. Dual MA crossover

    50 vote(s)
    29.4%
  3. Trendline

    61 vote(s)
    35.9%
  4. N-day breakout

    20 vote(s)
    11.8%
  1. cnms2

    cnms2

    Good for you, but allow me to politely doubt it.

    If I'm not mistaken, Spydertrader's last reported performance was to double his investment account in less than a year. I doubt that you consistently can do the same thing monthly. He's swing trading, so less effort would be either an almost automatic trading system, or position trading. OTOH Jack claims that his ES trading on the 5 minute chart, at expert level, is about 800% more profitable than his equity trading system which is at the origin of Spydertrader's method.

    I have no proof for Spydertrader's and Jack's claims, but I generally understand their methods and they are sound.

    Maybe you're open to give more details about your trading method and performance. I have no other reason to doubt your claims, except that I've seen no backing.

    I'm always ready to learn something new.
     
    #471     Feb 9, 2006
  2. hans37

    hans37


    Sorry you misread that. my success rate(profitable trades ) is no where near 97% however the amount of time spent in profitable trades very closely approaches this.

    My quote If I'm "In" (aka profitable ) it's a trend, otherwise why should I care?"

    Means #1 the only trend I care about is the one I have that's profitable. (the rest are windmills of the mind)

    #2) It's very rare for my position to be both open and at a loss upon observation. (I don't hold onto losers)

    hope that helped your confusion.(but it really wasn't confusion was it?)
     
    #472     Feb 9, 2006
  3. hans37

    hans37

    Thanks for your concern but it was a clarification for a confused poster, it was never intended as a "performance " claim.

    Ever heard the axiom, " cut your losses short ,let you winners run"
     
    #473     Feb 9, 2006
  4. Sorry to disappoint you but I am not about to let the cat get out of the bag.

    As they say: "It's for me to know and for you to wonder".

    :cool:
     
    #474     Feb 9, 2006
  5. OK one more day here to see if this is really going to happen after all the hype. IF it was I am surprised nothing has been said yet.

     
    #475     Feb 12, 2006
  6. :D :D :D
     
    #476     Feb 12, 2006
  7. TraderD

    TraderD

    cornholetrading,
    ET is grateful to you for keeping "eyes on the ball". This contest challenge proves a lot.
     
    #477     Feb 12, 2006
  8. polestar

    polestar

    To spot an uptrend, I look for a breakout after seeing 2 pull backs, and 1 higher high. So essentially I want to get long as price takes out first higher high.
     
    #478     Feb 12, 2006
  9. Who is going to go to all that trouble to make a point? I doubt it will happen but hope it does as I would like to see the Prof put the petal to the metal in realtime.



    Re: This thread. I have a tape by LBR that I have watched about a thousand times. She states that according to the forefathers of technical anaylsis once a trend is established the odds favor it continuing. Unfortunately she does not specify how long a trend on what time frame. I believe this is true because its how I make a living but my approach is purely visual. If I see a nice long move in one direction without any significant pullbacks then get a pullback that does not pull back too far I will bet that its going to resume but I know of no studies to back this up. Do you?
     
    #479     Feb 12, 2006
  10. I have been informed that it will be a no go for the "live" 20 day trading journal. So unfortunately there will be no backing up of the claims that will be viewable to the masses.
     
    #480     Feb 12, 2006