POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by billpritjr, Nov 14, 2005.

POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

  1. Single MA

    39 vote(s)
    22.9%
  2. Dual MA crossover

    50 vote(s)
    29.4%
  3. Trendline

    61 vote(s)
    35.9%
  4. N-day breakout

    20 vote(s)
    11.8%
  1. Cool, if I had read that book I would probably have problems with his definitions as well. I have yet to read any book or article that consistently defines Trend. There are always too many inconsistencies.

    I trade differently though. My definition of trend is strictly defined in a closed environment and that is how I can define it. My definition of Trend is not HIS!
     
    #401     Nov 28, 2005

  2. ok. looking forward to seeing your systems results in march.

    best wishes,

    surfer:)
     
    #402     Nov 28, 2005
  3. Vienna

    Vienna

    First of all, no, my last initial is not "C". Not even close. And it is not by "chance" that it is a different initial either. Be careful with your terminology...there was a definite, measurable movement of my parents towards each other that created that initial... statistically improbable yet here I am. One could almost call the movement a strong Trend.

    (I tried, but just can not resist the temptation to speculate if the initial "G." of your last name MIGHT have been created by a purely random meeting ... I hate to ask this but- was a coin tossed? Juuust kidding!)

    Well, at least you find my (or Livermore's) "platitudes" lovely.

    But as you know, to be in the market for a long time is not necessarily an achievement by itself and does not a supertrader make, just a long timer...
    In any case, how on earth you find the analogy of a surfer riding a wave not applicable but then call yourself "marketsurfer" beats me, but hey- that's OK... we all live with our contradictions...
     
    #403     Nov 28, 2005
  4. vienna,

    yes, i agree, i have a most unusual surname. however, i do assure you, its not by chance. it is from alsace, and many good things from that land of plenty have automagically/ genetically transfered themselves into the present. :D

    do you hail from the neighboring land your handle suggests?


    i'll elaborate on my earlier point later.....


    surfer:) :)
     
    #404     Nov 28, 2005
  5. Vienna

    Vienna


    Same to you, and many fresh breezes to catch... they are out there, every day.
     
    #405     Nov 28, 2005
  6. there is no such thing as noise....only price movement.....small they may be sometimes but trends they still are....try to hop a moving freight running in opposite direction train is moving...not wise
     
    #406     Nov 28, 2005
  7. Now that is a legitimate point about claiming profit on 90% plus of the entries. Defining a trend and recognizing how to read it is one thing, but timing entries with a win percentage that high would be quite unbelievable unless proven - which is where this should be going in Feb. I guess at that point we will be able to see how legit those claims are. Hey even 80% would be quite inspiring.
     
    #407     Nov 28, 2005
  8. I think it depends on the market and the environment at the time. If you think about the reward it could be a lot higher then just buying the breakout but only IF you can define when to enter on the pullback. So if you get a false breakout you still make money. A lot of markets that are NOT in big bull runs tend to have a lot of noise around breakout levels and tend to have false breakouts so I feel those are higher risk spots for potential less reward then learning how to trade the pullbacks where you make more when you are right and worst case lose as much as if you tried to buy a breakout that did not work.
     
    #408     Nov 28, 2005

  9. for sure. at even 55-60% you could potentially corner the world's markets --- if you posess the nerve and capital.

    LOL!

    surfer :)
     
    #409     Nov 28, 2005
  10. I agree, I just used that term because most traders do not realize that every price move is part of an oscillation.
     
    #410     Nov 28, 2005