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POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by billpritjr, Nov 14, 2005.

Charlie Dow
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Quote from steve46:

Mr. Dow (Charlie)

My comments were not directed toward you. They were aimed at the person writing the post directly above mine.

The "name calling" (guilty as charged) and whatever else you object to were not aimed at you either.

I don't have an opinion as to anything you have said.

Sorry you took it personally.

Steve
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My apologies! Thin skinned this week I guess . . . I'll take a deep breath.

#331 Nov 27, 2005

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Charlie Dow
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Quote from makosgu:

For sure we are very different!!! Why not quit this needless banter (ie. "moron"). You see our difference is noted by our orientation. It's that whole overlap thing I posted about earlier. You see that what I do and you do must overlap what you do when it is clear that we have ZERO overlap (ie. 3 possibilities, overlap, no overlap, partial overlap).

You say, everytime I put on a trade I predict otherwise I am just reading what happened in the past... Perhaps you are not seeing the fine line I make between predicting and not predicting.

AGAIN. The forecast analogy. So when is a prediction no longer a prediction. Well it is no longer a prediction when it is happening as we speak. We don't hear weather man say that the forecast is that it is raining right now. That is not a forecast/prediction. The dictionary defines prediction as a prophecy (ie. something that is going to come to pass). As you see things, as you have indicated in your post, you only see 2 perspectives, and I am presuming that you have not seen that there is in FACT THREE!!!

The past, "THE PRESENT", and The Future...

You mentioned past and then future in terms of prediction. So with the forecast analogy, you can see how I am always in THE PRESENT (ie. NOW). Well, how about some technicalities. Well, for one, we know that there is uncertainty in the future. The furthur you move out into the future, the greater the uncertainty. Then there is the past, there is no uncertainty about what happened in the past. But what of the present. Well, we know for a fact that there isn't any uncertainty about THE PRESENT either. It just takes a glance out the window (ie. what's the weather RIGHT NOW). The problem is largely that we all have different windows as dictated by your trading chart. There is a multitude of setup combinations and therein lies the issue regarding whether there is any accuracy in what your reading and subsequently, your trading. Someone posts that their charts show that we are in a long trend and someone else with a different chart setup says the trend is short. Which of the two statements is accurate??? This is where we wind up with the trading environment ordeal.

However, if you are not interested in the present, then you get stuck in trying to identify the future (ie. predict). And since you post that their is just the past and future, how is it that you could understand that the continuation of the present is more certain than the future you are trying to predict especially since the uncertain future is continually scrolling into the present and then the past???

EEK... The problem with your second statement is how you understand traders approach the market (ie. another ZERO overlap between us). But again, as long as it is raining, I have my raincoat on. With regard to the thread, as long as the trend continues long, why would you want to predict when to go short. All you need to do is recognize that the trend has stopped continuing to be long... IN OTHER WORDS, LOOK OUT THE WINDOW...

MAK!
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Damn, I couldn't have said that better myself.

#332 Nov 27, 2005

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Charlie Dow
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Quote from OddTrader:

Anyway, they both have achieved what they originally expected - a free promotion on ET.
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Hey Odd,

As I stated earlier in the thread, until Magna outed me 11/18, I had never mentioned what I do outside of ET as Charlie Dow. Absolutely no self promotion on my part.
Whatever Magna's reasoning for doing what he did I can only imagine. It seemed personal and was definately against ET privacy policy.

#333 Nov 27, 2005

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Charlie Dow
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Quote from easyrider:

Well Ive been watching both for quite awhile. I have seen a lot of Surfs trades and he makes most of his money on large trades that often last for days. I havent seen too many of Profs trades but the ones I have seen were intraday and it is my impression that he is basically an intraday trader. Its apples and oranges, imo.

p.s. In the ego contest it is a draw.
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When you can read price, whether you trade intraday, swing, position, Daily, Weekly or Monthly . . . it makes no difference. Price is all read the same way.

#334 Nov 27, 2005

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easyrider
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Quote from Charlie Dow:

When you can read price, whether you trade intraday, swing, position, Daily, Weekly or Monthly . . . it makes no difference. Price is all read the same way.
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No shit. So how do you set up a fair contest between a swing trader and an intraday trader?

#335 Nov 27, 2005

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hans37
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Quote from makosgu:

For sure we are very different!!! Why not quit this needless banter (ie. "moron"). You see our difference is noted by our orientation. It's that whole overlap thing I posted about earlier. You see that what I do and you do must overlap what you do when it is clear that we have ZERO overlap (ie. 3 possibilities, overlap, no overlap, partial overlap).

You say, everytime I put on a trade I predict otherwise I am just reading what happened in the past... Perhaps you are not seeing the fine line I make between predicting and not predicting.

AGAIN. The forecast analogy. So when is a prediction no longer a prediction. Well it is no longer a prediction when it is happening as we speak. We don't hear weather man say that the forecast is that it is raining right now. That is not a forecast/prediction. The dictionary defines prediction as a prophecy (ie. something that is going to come to pass). As you see things, as you have indicated in your post, you only see 2 perspectives, and I am presuming that you have not seen that there is in FACT THREE!!!

The past, "THE PRESENT", and The Future...

You mentioned past and then future in terms of prediction. So with the forecast analogy, you can see how I am always in THE PRESENT (ie. NOW). Well, how about some technicalities. Well, for one, we know that there is uncertainty in the future. The furthur you move out into the future, the greater the uncertainty. Then there is the past, there is no uncertainty about what happened in the past. But what of the present. Well, we know for a fact that there isn't any uncertainty about THE PRESENT either. It just takes a glance out the window (ie. what's the weather RIGHT NOW). The problem is largely that we all have different windows as dictated by your trading chart. There is a multitude of setup combinations and therein lies the issue regarding whether there is any accuracy in what your reading and subsequently, your trading. Someone posts that their charts show that we are in a long trend and someone else with a different chart setup says the trend is short. Which of the two statements is accurate??? This is where we wind up with the trading environment ordeal.

However, if you are not interested in the present, then you get stuck in trying to identify the future (ie. predict). And since you post that their is just the past and future, how is it that you could understand that the continuation of the present is more certain than the future you are trying to predict especially since the uncertain future is continually scrolling into the present and then the past???

EEK... The problem with your second statement is how you understand traders approach the market (ie. another ZERO overlap between us). But again, as long as it is raining, I have my raincoat on. With regard to the thread, as long as the trend continues long, why would you want to predict when to go short. All you need to do is recognize that the trend has stopped continuing to be long... IN OTHER WORDS, LOOK OUT THE WINDOW...

MAK!
More...

Can you tie your own shoes or does that cause a conflict with your idea of non- predicting how they should look?

#336 Nov 27, 2005

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Charlie Dow
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Quote from easyrider:

No shit. So how do you set up a fair contest between a swing trader and an intraday trader?
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I'll swing trade . . . no problem here.

#337 Nov 27, 2005

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Charlie Dow
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I hear a huge sucking sound . . . did hans make another post?

#338 Nov 27, 2005

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fritz_haber
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Quote from Charlie Dow:

I'll swing trade . . . no problem here.
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So it's up to marketsurfer ...

Charlie has opened the doors for you, now be man and walk through.

If you are in fear of the competition, then please be so kind and stop posting, otherwise your behavior is just childish.

A good start into the new week and may the trend be with you,

fritz_haber

Ups ... I forgot, there are now trends ;-).

#339 Nov 27, 2005

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Agyar
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Hey there. I enjoy your posts, so don't take this personally, but I have to disagree with you on this point.

When your analysis tells you the ES trend is up, and you enter the ES long at 1226.50, you are predicting that the trend will continue and you will be able to exit at a profit right? I don't understand how you can say this is not predicting. Just because you have a positive expectation, doesn't mean it is not predicting. Just because it is not random, does not mean you are not predicting.

I agree that we can know the present. The present is ES = 1226.50. Anything PAST that is a prediction. What will the next tick be? That is a "guess" for all intents and purposes.

Sorry to belabor this point. It actually doesn't matter if I call it predicting and you call it basketweaving. I'm not sure it is relevant to the core points of the thread.

Good trading.

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=predict

"Synonyms: predict, call, forecast, foretell, prognosticate
These verbs mean to tell about something in advance of its occurrence by means of special knowledge or inference"

Quote from makosgu:

For sure we are very different!!! Why not quit this needless banter (ie. "moron"). You see our difference is noted by our orientation. It's that whole overlap thing I posted about earlier. You see that what I do and you do must overlap what you do when it is clear that we have ZERO overlap (ie. 3 possibilities, overlap, no overlap, partial overlap).

You say, everytime I put on a trade I predict otherwise I am just reading what happened in the past... Perhaps you are not seeing the fine line I make between predicting and not predicting.

AGAIN. The forecast analogy. So when is a prediction no longer a prediction. Well it is no longer a prediction when it is happening as we speak. We don't hear weather man say that the forecast is that it is raining right now. That is not a forecast/prediction. The dictionary defines prediction as a prophecy (ie. something that is going to come to pass). As you see things, as you have indicated in your post, you only see 2 perspectives, and I am presuming that you have not seen that there is in FACT THREE!!!

The past, "THE PRESENT", and The Future...

You mentioned past and then future in terms of prediction. So with the forecast analogy, you can see how I am always in THE PRESENT (ie. NOW). Well, how about some technicalities. Well, for one, we know that there is uncertainty in the future. The furthur you move out into the future, the greater the uncertainty. Then there is the past, there is no uncertainty about what happened in the past. But what of the present. Well, we know for a fact that there isn't any uncertainty about THE PRESENT either. It just takes a glance out the window (ie. what's the weather RIGHT NOW). The problem is largely that we all have different windows as dictated by your trading chart. There is a multitude of setup combinations and therein lies the issue regarding whether there is any accuracy in what your reading and subsequently, your trading. Someone posts that their charts show that we are in a long trend and someone else with a different chart setup says the trend is short. Which of the two statements is accurate??? This is where we wind up with the trading environment ordeal.

However, if you are not interested in the present, then you get stuck in trying to identify the future (ie. predict). And since you post that their is just the past and future, how is it that you could understand that the continuation of the present is more certain than the future you are trying to predict especially since the uncertain future is continually scrolling into the present and then the past???

EEK... The problem with your second statement is how you understand traders approach the market (ie. another ZERO overlap between us). But again, as long as it is raining, I have my raincoat on. With regard to the thread, as long as the trend continues long, why would you want to predict when to go short. All you need to do is recognize that the trend has stopped continuing to be long... IN OTHER WORDS, LOOK OUT THE WINDOW...

MAK!
More...

#340 Nov 27, 2005

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