POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by billpritjr, Nov 14, 2005.

POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

  1. Single MA

    39 vote(s)
    22.9%
  2. Dual MA crossover

    50 vote(s)
    29.4%
  3. Trendline

    61 vote(s)
    35.9%
  4. N-day breakout

    20 vote(s)
    11.8%
  1. LOL, Man, are those quotes telling or what? I suspect that Charlie Dow has departed from ET, much like his previous manifestation (proflogic) did - when the heat was on. Of course, he will make a re-appearance using YAH (Yet-Another-Handle) on ET, when he is in need of new victims, because he is too cheap to fork out some advertising cashola on ET like the other vendors.

    Instead, he will appear out of the blue, "apparently" he will be here because he wants to help people (ROFLMAO).

    The language of course is always a giveaway - HH, HL, LH, LL, ad nauseaum, and the use of key words like perfect, flawless. A Volume based chart with a mutated version of Blau's ergodic indicator will seal it. Of course, by then the chart and indicator settings will probably have changed (read curve-fit).

    Indeed, Perfect Flawless Bull Shit - PFBS ! Yeah yeah...

    Caveat Emptor.
     
    #211     Nov 23, 2005
  2. Fellas, quiet down, I'll show you the way:

    To find the trend either:
    (1) hold up a wet finger into the air;
    or better still:
    (2) take a rabbit's foot and rub vigorously.

    Hope this helps. :cool:
    __________________
    Trend Finding is Edge Finding and Edge Finding is Trend Finding
    nononsense's axiom
     
    #212     Nov 23, 2005
  3. So now we cycle into the complaints about how traders never "share".

    Gee, I wonder why . . .

    ET is as predictable as the tides.
     
    #213     Nov 23, 2005
  4. ptunic

    ptunic

    A couple notes in no particular order on various topics:

    - I got some PMs on questions from the last chart on the software etc. First it is Multicharts with IB, and yes I like the combination quite a bit. However I think they are raising their prices from $400 to much higher soon once the next major version comes out that is supposed to make it more powerful than Tradestation. But since I've already paid, I receive new versions for free of Multicharts and going forward my total costs are practically nothing since the feed comes from IB. I'm not using eSignal / Ensign anymore, so my costs drop from about $200/month to $10 per month, and the setup is better IMO. As for the volume chart bars, I compared them side by side with the eSignal / Ensign setup and they are about 99.9% identical. That is good enough for me. Keep in mind if you are doing scalping (for say 1-3 ticks and reading the tape etc) this would NOT be a good setup since the ticks are compressed. That said.. I think new traders underestimate how difficult it is to overcome transaction costs (unless you have institutional quality resources) to successfully scalp but that is another topic I guess. But the bottom line is if you are scalping you are probably better off with true tick / Time + Sales data. For my specific purposes, this setup is ideal, cheap, and has better quality than higher cost alternatives.

    - Another person was asking about the oscillator. It is called the "ergotic". The bar colors are based on the same oscillator you see under the chart (hence the colors are aligned vertically). The indicator doesn't come with the program itself (Mulitcharts) though it does come with Ensign. I used an EasyLanguage-coded version of the ergodic for Multicharts. As far as the setting, I am unable to disclose the exact parameters or give the EasyLanguage code away but I believe it is posted a year ago or so in an earlier thread somewhere on ET. Personally I don't think there is anything magical about the exact setting, almost any "reasonable" setting would "work", it is more about the application of the tools, and knowing why they would work in the first place (what are they measuring and why would it matter).

    - Today's chart is attached. It reminds me of yesterday a little. The exit is not recommend though, only the entries and stop are even somewhat close to what the method as taught by PL is supposed to be. I'm still learning / developing the method, so this is just my current interpretation. Today and yesterday have been unusually easy to read with the system. Most days are more difficult and/or have losing trades or no trades at all.

    - I paid the $300 to learn from PL earlier this year. Between work, school, other trading research, etc. I haven't had time to research his method sufficiently but am starting to get back to it. I think the money was well spent and I have learned more about reading the market. If PL was still offering it, I would highly recommend it to other traders if they were in the beginning stages as I think it gives some great technical foundations. That said I don't think it is a holy grail where a new trader can try to learn the method an within weeks be trading with a sharp ratio of >= 1.5 consistently. I think it is probably more difficult than it sounds and takes considerable time and effort and not everyone will succeed. In other words I don't think it is something where people should expect to walk away with a shrink-wrapped solution that enables them to become trader gods quickly and effortlessly, and I suspect the majority never are able to apply it. This is just my suspicion I could very well be wrong. Still, I would highly recommend it for beginning traders if he was still offering it, again with the caveat that expectations should be realistic. As far as the seminars, I have not attended so can't make a proper analysis/recommendation.

    - A previous post mentioned PL changing the settings, etc. My experience is that isn't really true (at least in a negative way). The tick to volume charts was a natural progression and is very much in line with the overall strategy of the system. It would be like if you were playing Doom in multiplayer mode (or any other video game) and you upgraded from a 9600 baud modem to broadband. Yeah.. it changes things but it is really just an improvement, the game itself is fundamentally the same for the most part. I didn't see the tick to volume migration as problematic in the slightest nor incompatible with the system. In addition, I read a complaint that he was changing other core aspects of the system. In this case I also disagree but for other reasons. As far as I could tell he has been trading the system himself consistently, but there were some things he was doing subconsciously that he recently started to notice (and astute students noticed) and has begun to formalize them (incorporate them into the documentation, etc). Again I think this just gets to expectations, I think some students were thinking it is a fully documented closed system where IMO it is a great basis for learning but some areas take experience to apply successfully.

    -Taric


    <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=906778 width=800>
    click on attachment to enlarge image
     
    #214     Nov 23, 2005
  5. schnorgie

    schnorgie


    "......There is no such thing as (a) trend. Heh, heh."
     
    #215     Nov 23, 2005
  6. Curious1

    Curious1

    Like Taric, I too paid $300 to learn from Charlie Dow aka ProfLogic. I have been learning and applying his methodology to read and identify trend and trading opportuities since the beginning of this year. It took me a good six months to really understand his method. I take full responsibility for my learning curve as I'm sure some have understood it much quicker while others may never fully grasp it.

    He has made changes in both the way he presents his material and in his charts. In my experience, the changes have been made as a natural evolution in an attempt to make it easier to learn and to improve the process (like using volume instead of tick charts). Additionally, any time I have asked for help he has been more than willing to assist me with my learning at no additional cost.

    Like many before me I have purchased countless trading books, bought software, and systems in an attempt to become a profitable trader. While I am sure that this method is not for everyone, since we all operate with different belief systems, it does work for me. I consistently reach his recommended 10 points per week on the ES. I have not had a losing week in over two months and am profitable about four out of every five trading days.

    Of course, all I can relate is my own experience. Given what I now know and the fact that the only way to get this information now is to attend a seminar I would highly recommend it to those with an open mind seeking a methodology to trade profitably. That said, do not expect to learn this without some effort and more importantly lots of screen time!

    A couple of final comments, you can see that I have been a member of ET for a year or so and this is my first post. I know some of you will be suspicious but I assure you that I am not Charlie or ProfLogic. The moderator can of course confirm this. While I enjoy perusing ET, as a fulltime trader I have no interest or intention of becoming a fulltime poster here. Finally, since many, if not, most us have been burned by charlatans selling trading related items and given the way the good Prof sometimes states things using terms like "perfect rules" it would be fool hearty to accept what he says without some skepticism.
    In the end all I can say is his method works for me and I highly recommend it to others looking for a method to trade the market profitably. If you are interested pick up the phone and call him.
    See what he has to say and ask him any questions you like before making a decision.

    Wishing all of you the best in your trading endeavors!

    Curious1
     
    #216     Nov 23, 2005

  7. Thanks Curious, whomever you are but it is easier to bash the unknown then to explore it.
     
    #217     Nov 23, 2005
  8. Cheese

    Cheese

    Ok ProfLogic (now Charlie Dow) came along with his Higher Highs and Lower Lows dictat plus his pure oscillation of price proposition. OK it was a fair observation for him to underline something that every trader instinctively registers when looking at charts.

    However what you've now got is very persistent salesman who does not give up and cannot be shamed.

    Best advice: avoid.
     
    #218     Nov 23, 2005
  9. Cut the "Cheese", every pun intended.

    You have no clue as to "How" I look or read price so don't pass off your opinion as what I do. There were numerous traders here that told of their successes but they were all lying or delutional, right . "No Shame", please, look in the mirror.
     
    #219     Nov 23, 2005
  10. Charlie, read Cheese's response (above) again. Something about misquoting?... Hmm?... :D
     
    #220     Nov 23, 2005