POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

Dogballoon here.

ADX is a good way, although I prefer to find the most recent breakout and then draw a trend line from the lows.

 

imo You can't. Trends are apparent only after the fact. If you're not already inside it, it's usually too late.

Otherwise everyone who posted here would be wealthier than bill gates swinging 10,000 contacts each way with their "trend identifier" systems.

 

exactly! however, its not your opinion, its a fact. trend is the one of the most deceitful, tricky mindgames the market throws at traders.

surfer

 

No it's an opinion. I gave you the parameters in the other thread to prove it but you refused to fill in the spaces.

It's easier to rant that they don't exist than to do a little work proving they could.

 

the work has already been done and is freely available, mr. dow. if you care to look for it.

surfer

 

I agree trends are apparent after the fact but if you have a strong stock that has formed a solid breakout pattern, chances are higher that a trend will be established after the break.

When I trend a stock, I don't enter on the trend -- I am in on the breakout. I plan my longer term exits and reversals according to trend failures. They're rarer finds, but they pay off.

 

So any new work and new proofs can not be valid, is that what you are saying?

 

It's not so much whether trends exist or are predictible or not (that was a fun thread), the problem is that those looking for trends to trade are most likely unable to make any money off them.

In other words, don't look for trends if you want to trade them.

 

I'll get straight to the point (unlike most of our wannabe gurus here on ET). Anybody.....(Repeat)Anybody who thinks you cannot draw a trendline onto a chart and identify, at least, a short term trading opportunity and/or trend, doesn't know what in the hell he is talking about.

 

Trends exist but to prove that but one most specifically define them within strict charting environments and with fixed and consistent rules. Rules and environments that can't be manipulated. This is the biggest reason people find it simplier to say they don't exist than to do the necessary work to prove they do.

The flip side of the argument is a lot harder to swallow. Someone said eariler that if successfull Trend systems existed the people trading them would be richer than Bill Gates. The statement is true, sadly because greed would get in the way of most traders being conservative with it. That is one big reason I'm glad that most traders are too lazy to prove to themselves they do exist.