Sorry did'nt mean to offend a true believer here. I might be wrong in extrapolating his lame and obviously lack of logic in his responses to me , coupled with his penchant for snicker eliciting hubris ("Those that add to my stuff never make it either ") to indicate his methods equally flawed. Like I said if it works for him fine.
I have been looking at your method since the old days (before disneyworld) . I find it is definitely viable. However, I am still doing a little fine tuning to get consistent. On the daily (not intraday) ESz5, do we have failure? If not, where would failure take place. As always, thanks for your help. I hope Et'ers dont run you off too soon.
hi, thanks for the cogent reply. i am speaking primarily of stock index, not commodities. having observed tests that clearly indicate the chances of a price increase after a series of declines in the stock indexes is 10% higher than normal. this tell me that trend following in the indexes is not an ideal method. thanks to my mentor and friend VN for providing the above study. you mention oil--i believe your concept of a finite supply ( as applied to economic relevance/trading) is fundamentally flawed. of course there is a finite supply, as there is with water and anything else on earth. new supplies are being discovered all the time, it is unknown how much oil there is and actually some scientists believe it is being created constantly. i posted my oil trades in a public forum that i am not permitted by ET to mention, but by observing this series of trades one can deduce the way i trade. i fade extremes of public sentiment , utilize algorythmic predictive logic programs among other methods depending on the market. trend followers buy new highs and sell new lows---just like the public. hope this helps surfer
Fading public sentiment sounds like the best trading method around. how do you dertermine sentiment extremes?
I find it interesting that Charlie Dow (PL) is scattering so many keys around gratis, and not only is no one opening any doors with them, no one is even bothering to pick them up. And one wonders why only a handful of traders succeed . . .
Let me see if I understand all this correctly. Charlie Dow has found THE way to trade. Trade differently, and you will lose. Not only that, but trade HIS way, and it is IMPOSSIBLE for the trend to reverse immediately after entry. How...absolute. And now you are saying that all anyone needs to do is follow the pied piper with all the discipline and resolve of a lemming? Don't ever lose that sense of humor.
Charlie Dow said it. You pointedly observed that no one is bothering to pick up these "keys" that he is dropping to open some kind of trading "doors," observing that so few traders seem to succeed as a result. How's that for reception?
MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT! Having looked at the internals it is a single consistent way, no claims of being THE way! MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT! If you adopt what he has done and alter things, you risk compromising the consistency it was specifically built for... MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT! The insight is that any oscillation cannot simultaneously be both a TOP and BOTTOM... To each his own. We all choose our own paths. Some come with a map...
You may not agree with my conclusions, but I did not misquote a single word. Kindly review the posts.