Poll Farce: Pew Oversamples Democrats

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JamesL, Aug 3, 2012.

  1. JamesL


    On what alternate universe will Democrats enjoy a D +19 turnout advantage over Republicans on election day? Well, that would be Planet Pew:

    The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.


    Sample Size:

    459 Republicans

    813 Democrats

    599 Independents

    In the best election season Democrats have enjoyed since Nixon resigned, 2008, the Democrat advantage was only D+8, but Pew is now attempting to hustle us into believing the turnout this year is going to be D +19.

    The internals make even less sense. According to the same Pew poll that has Obama up by 10 nationally, he's only ahead by 4 in the swings states, but he's losing to Romney with independents 45-43%.

    As if that doesn’t make Pew look ridiculous enough, The Economist released a new national poll today with a slightly less absurd sample of D +10, but they show Romney in the lead, 46-44%.

    And this is the third intentionally skewed media-poll dropped on us in just a few days. Last week NBC dropped a D +11, and just a couple of days ago, Quinnipiac and The New York Times dropped three swing state polls with absurdly skewed partisan samples. Both showed Obama in the lead and both allowed the media to give our failed president more than a few positive news-cycles and Romney all kinds of phony concern-trolling.

    And yet, today, Rasmussen has Romney up by two nationally, and Gallup only has Romney behind by two. Rasmussen uses the tighter screen of likely voters and Gallup uses the less reliable screen of registered voters.

    I know who I believe.

    Moreover, Gallup just released a survey that shows Democrat voter enthusiasm is at its lowest point in years, and Republican enthusiasm is a full 12 points higher. But according to these whack jobs at Pew, Democrats will still almost triple their advantage in 2012.

    So what's going on here?

    Well, it's very simple.

    This is nothing more than an act of intentional juicing to keep The Narrative alive that says Obama is winning and that Romney can't get his act together. You see, it works like this…

    The only way our failed president can win is if Romney is disqualified; if voters don’t see him as an acceptable alternative. So if the media and their pollsters can bedevil him with nonsense -- fabricated gaffes, audacious lies, D +19 sample sizes -- it keeps Romney on his heels, on defense, and smothers his ability to get his message out. In other words, it makes Romney look incompetent, and if Romney looks incompetent, the American people won’t hire him, no matter how much they want to fire Obama -- and they are desperate to fire Obama, believe me.

    The timing of this juiced poll is also likely not an accident. Tomorrow the July job numbers come out, so what better way to distract from what will likely be bad news for Obama than with an absurdly skewed poll that allows the corrupt media to squirrel the job numbers and go right back to talking about Romney's inability to run a competent campaign? A perfect pivot…

    Gee, Andrea, with these lousy job numbers, Romney really should be ahead, but he just can’t get his act together.

    My friend Guy Benson of Townhall made a great point during a segment we just finished recording for his Sunday radio show -- that a heck of a lot more people are going to see and hear headlines that read "Obama Up By 10" than the analysis exposing the poll as a farce.

    So beyond The Narrative-plus Obama wins in the media over the next few days, Pew's cooking of the books also keeps Obama artificially ahead in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, gives the media something to distract from tomorrow's jobs numbers, and demoralizes Republicans unaware of the juiced internals.

    Win-win-win-win, baby!

    There's nothing Obama can’t accomplish with the Media-Poll Propaganda Machine dialed up to 10.

  2. Every 2008 Pew presidential poll had Obama ahead of McCain From March until election day
  3. Eight


    Jimmy Carter's second term bigger than sh^t!! Economy going to hell in a handbasket, unemployment way up.. Obama is the worst!

    Hey Jimmy, start writing your third dozen books about how great you are, your presiduncey isn't quite over with!!
  4. Max E.

    Max E.

    Why even bother wasting the time and money calling people and pretending to conduct a poll when you are going to have twice as many democrats, it would probably be cheaper for them just to stand outside of Obama campaign rallies and survey people as they are leaving.....
  5. Ricter


    We are trying to validate or invalidate sampling methodology by looking at the results, i.e. from the outside, and of course we're doing that while looking through our personal "eyeglasses".
  6. apparently there is a law that requires companies to notify workers of lay offs 60 days in advance.

    Obama has suspended that law (or asked compaines to ignore it) in the next few months.

    Seems announements of lay offs within 60 days of the election wouldn't look too good.
  7. Ricter


    That's fair, as the "fiscal cliff" is not an inevitable future yet. Besides, it's not deceptively contrary to trend:

    <img src="http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=22962">
  8. Brass


    Seems Max believes Romney is doing much better than the polls suggest. I wonder if he'll be putting his money where his mouth is...
  9. pspr


    Lulling the democraps into a sense of false security. I have faith that the American voter will correct the error it made in 2008. 2010 was just a sample of what is in store for the democraps in November.
    #10     Aug 3, 2012