POLL: Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Thunderdog, Jul 25, 2009.

Do you believe you can reasonably anticipate or identify a trend day?

  1. No

    61 vote(s)
    52.1%
  2. Yes, with somewhere between 60% and 75% reliability

    26 vote(s)
    22.2%
  3. Yes, with better than 75% reliability

    30 vote(s)
    25.6%
  1. I am interested in hearing people's techniques for determining larger moves the direction and the length.

    To your question I think it can be done though I am not sure I can do it all the time.

    In reverse, part of the question is determining when a day will (or has) dissolved into a chop.

    I has noticed for the ES that there are multiday moves which are in one direction and the extent of the mulitday move helps with that day. For example, if the multiday move is 40 points and you have done 20 of the 30 you still "have room" for the upcoming day.

    Another part of the question is in range determination. If you can reasonably estimate the days range
    AND IF
    you can tell when the first of the HOD or LOD is in place, then you have a basis for determining a trend from HOD to LOD or vice versa.
     
    #61     Nov 20, 2014
  2. Scaleout.Scalper

    Scaleout.Scalper Guest

    Trend days prediction aka large moves with high accuracy ?

    ah-huh
     
    #62     Nov 20, 2014
  3. %%%%%
    Yes, but NOT prediction; markets do NOT work that way.[a] As far as probabilities of a profitable trend trade; yes[z] As far as HI accuracy, bull markets are not that dificult, but notice i did not even repeat the word ''trend day'' mainly because i like being paid multiple days,[large moves] in a row.

    BEAR markets can be more difficult[+ more fun]; LEH, GM, DALBEAR STEARNS went belly up, bottom bucks in a bear market[bears live below 200dma-Alan farley + IBD/Investors Business Daily]];if the US Fed + Japanese central bank had not stepped in a bear probably would have started in OCT 2014.
    Stock Traders Almanac noted a Jan Up-down pattern that hits 88%/+;but looks like 2014 is part of theUPtrend bull market 12%, not 88%[Even though jan was down in SPY,QQQ.....]

    Wisdom is profitable to direct.
     
    #63     Nov 25, 2014
  4. GiantDog

    GiantDog

    #64     Dec 4, 2014