Poll: Crash or Bounce?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pabst, May 21, 2006.

A Big Move is Coming? Which Way?

  1. This is a freefall. I see only the weakest of bounces this week, perhaps no bounce.

    34 vote(s)
  2. This will be a decent retracement week to the upside.

    47 vote(s)
  1. Pabst


    I haven't run one these in a while.

    Two scenarios.

    In March of 2003 the market commenced an eight session winning streak off a retest of the Oct/02 lows. That rally ended on March Opex. For the next week and a half the market retraced about 50% of those gains before lifting off again. Forever. Will we have a bounce of 35 SPX points in the next week or so?

    The flip side.

    We're at good support. 70-80 pt SPX moves have been faded. Yet sentiment at these levels is VERY bullish. Why no "Black Monday" polls? Because we had a bullshit late Friday rally! Big deal. Do the bulls think going from 30 lower to 30 higher in the last hour on a Friday is meaningful?
  2. Pabst


    Bump. Let's get some votes. Lotta page views.
  3. Pabst


    Bump. More sentiment needed.:)
  4. not enough choices. I would be a volatility seller here. iow, the market could churn at this level for a while
  5. Pabst


    I purposely wanted to force folks into emotional, directional choices. You could be right volpimp.
  6. if mkt churns usually vols increases especially across atm strikes.
  7. just21


    When vix has spiked to similar levels in the last year it has been at significant lows, eg april and october 2005.
  8. Maybe our semantics are different.

    churn=static, oscillate, stay still, smaller variance.

    Prey tell how smaller expected ranges increase atm strike vol??

  9. if there's churnin' back and forth atm vols gain on expectation mkt will sooner or later take off in 1 or the other direction..after it does so usually vols fall and this for da simple reason that vols are priced in when u already in a steep decline or a shoot up move.

    edit; prob here is that we had already quite some decline and vols shoot up trough da roof, maybe u'll be correct afterall to dump vols...by da way i am talkin' specifically about atm strikes vega behaviour.
  10. If anything, we hang out for a little while here before trying to test 10900 ish levels where I think we will find good support. Already close to support levels on the S&P & Nasdaq, but Nasdaq sure does look shaky though, does it not? A close below 2100 might beget a quick run to 2025, and what little support there might not hold on a real runthrough to 1900. From there, look out below!

    Technicals aside, the severity of the correction and the resulting corrections in world-wide equity markets is concerning, spreading to the emerging markets (16% correction in ILF and BSE from the high - OUCH!). I could see this getting a bit run-a-way and if it turns into a full-on panic, all bets are off. Doubt that that happens though.

    From about to crack through new highs to defensive strategies in 8 weeks. Well, at least you can't say its dull...
    #10     May 21, 2006