You all are in big trouble. Cramer is really bullish. You know what that means. (I suspect from his quote that Cramer realizes he's become something of a contrary indicator.) realmoney.com- <i>"Oh man, Cramer's too bullish, it's all over." You hate to say "the market felt the best in three years," because the market is humbling and makes you look stupid immediately. </i> <i>But you know what? It felt for real and it felt better than any time in the last three years.</i>
Puffy, can you post more from that recent article by JJC? (I'm assuming that the excerpt above is from today's article by him) TIA
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_tschpbox/rmoney/jamesjcramer/10081470.html Cramer's Feeling All Warm and Fuzzy By James J. Cramer 04/17/2003 05:16 PM EDT You hate to say "it's for real this time" because people immediately email you and say "Oh man, Cramer's too bullish, it's all over." You hate to say "the market felt the best in three years," because the market is humbling and makes you look stupid immediately. But you know what? It felt for real and it felt better than any time in the last three years. Tech, retail, industrial, financial -- they all looked good. In fact, only health care disappointed, and in the old days I would have said that's just what should happen when the economy's recovering. Maybe expiration played a role. But earnings played a bigger role. For the first time in years, you know how I feel? I can't wait until next week. Enjoy your holidays.
Well, he's not that bullish. But its interesting to note that he's well aware of himself as the contrary indicator du jour. In summary, heart warming for the bears (moi) but not the extreme I was hoping for.
I think the market is at a make it or break it point. This market has undoubtedly been frustrating for the position traders who went long on the mid March rally. It's like it chopped everybody to disgust (see all the reversals, tails or doji) since late March. Now we are about to break out of the triangle, interestingly the US dollar and the bonds are also in a triangle. But if you look at the euro, it seems ready to breakout against many currencies. I can't see it exploding on the upside along with the US markets. The european markets have also been stronger than the US. On Friday close I could see a reason to go long for the breakout but I could also see as many reasons to be short, DAX and CAC looked good for a gap down Monday ( unfortunately I later learned these markets won't be opened on Monday so that would somewhat invalidate my analysis), US markets look a bit extended for it to gap up on Monday and are right at the top of their range. So I thought a gap down would be much larger than a gap up on Monday and if it does breakout it will be a difficult and tentative breakout if succesful at all. Vix is at low of its range, P/C ratio too BTW. I think all it's not over in the Mid East and elsewhere (who knows with Bush!) If crude oil doesn't close significantly lower on the 30th Gosh it could go way above 40. What would cause that?
LOL. More piercing insights from one of the market's leading arm wavers. This guy is hilarious. This felt better than at any time in the last three years? (Jeezus, I don't think even aphie would be dumb enough to buy that.) Seems the only thing this rally's got the others didn't is a "can't miss it" story behind it, Iraq. Ooh, yeah major legs holding that up. Of course, there may indeed be a lot more to go, and it might not be the smartest move to fight the tape just now, but popping champagne over what we've seen so far is just typical Cramer bullish BS. Such BS that I find it exceedingly difficult to believe that Cramer himself actually believes it.
This presentation does an ok job of outlining my reasoning: http://www.theuptrend.com/eResearch.html (wait for it to load then use the controls that pop up when you take cursor over to top right hand side of screen) Let me know what you think! (Mod: should this thread be moved to TA forum?)
We might have a short term lift, but it will be just that, short. Then it's bust, qqq to $17-$18 or lower longer term then sideways.