POLL - Bull or Bear Prediction, politics, and other fun stuff

Discussion in 'Economics' started by billpritjr, Sep 8, 2007.


  1. We are in a bull / bullish market as we speak

    1 vote(s)
  2. We are in a bear / bearish market as we speak

    0 vote(s)
  3. We are bull/bullish but will be possible bear in a few months

    1 vote(s)
  4. We are bear/bearish and will see hard bear market, in a few months

    2 vote(s)
  1. Gentleman

    Get out those crystal balls. My observations (I don't claim to be correct, but here they go...) are

    FUNDAMENTALS as of Sept 8, 2007

    1) Operating in inverted Yield Curve environment
    2) Mortgage crisis effects still have not fully hit the economy
    3) Oil prices high, Gold Up to new highs since June 2006
    4) US Dollar at new 12 year low
    5) Nation completely unhappy with its leader

    TECHNICALS as of Sept 8, 2007 (using SP 500)

    1) Bull market arguably began March 2003
    2) In mid-Aug, SP 500 off 11% from its high of 1550 neighborhood in July. Recovered somewhat. 15 to 20% declines off all time peaks are claimed by some to be associated with bearish markets
    3) High volume selling mid July to mid Aug. From mid-Aug until present, no real volume has come back to the markets
    4) 50 day EMA crossed the 100 day EMA
    5) 10 day TRIN is 1.41, 50 day TRIN is 1.20. It is claimed that TRIN of 1.2 or higher is Bearish. Some claim 1.5

    My opinion is we are bearish and will be in a full blown bear market in 3-6 Months.