How many people have tried to call the top the past yr and been destroyed? Take the last 6 weeks . We’ve had several 150 plus es declines that looked like the start of a big decline and they were bought hard . The truth is with at least 15 plus small declines that many shorted hard only to resky nobody will hold a short long anyway . If you did the last yr you were wiped out.
The last time there were 80% on one side, it was at a fucken bottom i believe around 2350 when i was calling for "all-in long", i don't bother digging the thread up now. NOW 80% THINK WE DON't GO DOWN, RIP!!! Just fkn go all in short at this point, never look back. If u can buy puts, that is literally free money. If u trade margin and use stops, it could still go above the high, sweep you out and then nuke so that's definitelly more risky/takes several attempts.
"Sell in May and go away." That doesn't always work though. I used to always think the market should be crashing, like every day, because it's always too high. I've given up on that. If it crashes, then I expect a rally to come soon. Until it crashes...up or sideways. My answer is: I don't know. But it's the end of the month, and sometimes it seems to drop around the end of the month, then rally around the beginning of the month. So, maybe a crash end of this week, but back up next week.
No crash (>%5-10). However, a weak TSLA, GBTC - a lot of many lost in altcoins with no bottom in sight. BITCOIN first chart, SPY second chart
Ditto. There might be a crash when "enough players change their mind". No way to predict that. A BIG event might trigger one, however, but that would have to "come out of the blue".
You posted a similar poll October 25, 2020 asking if we'd crash by the end of 2020. 73% said no. I can tell you my account is up 59% ( long only positions ) since the end of October. If I'd have listened to you in October my account would be at least 59% smaller. You seem to expect "crashes" quite frequently. Historically, it takes years after an event like March 2020 to get a large lasting correction. Yet you were pushing for one after 7 months. So much pointless noise on this site. Here's an idea. Wait for a real reason for markets to drop. Just like in 2019, I expect it'll be a frustrating year in 2021 for anyone who makes shorting US indexes their main trading strategy.
Go ahead, post your "free money" trades then. Be specific. If you want to short US indexes, we need to see where you'll cover. Because most of the bears on here that were high fiving themselves during the black swan last year messed up the trade. Which is of course why such trades are difficult. Not only do you have to time your entry, you have to have a reasonable practical target for the bottom. And the S2007S's of this world aren't capable of doing so.