Werent you bragging about Obama at 66% on intrade a few months ago? thats a 12 point drop according to the ask...... Obama is now 50/50 according to intrade once you average the bid/ask. Here is your quote right after the November ass whipping. 61% and dropping..... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3000853&highlight=intrade#post3000853
Two years is an eternity in politics. One incident can wreck a candidate. Jimmy Carter became joke over a crazed rabbit swimming towards his canoe. I will say that Obama has helped himself a lot after the disasterous elections. He snookered the idiot republicans on the tax plus stimulus debacle, he paid off his homo supporters with repealing DADT and got the republicans' base angry at them in the process for not fighting it harder, now he will get START passed, which the media will hail like the end of the Cold War. The republicans' only success was blocking the DREAM amnesty bill, which could cost obama some support with the reconquista crowd. Obama's biggest assets are the media, which will cheerlead him fervently, and the fact that most of his supporters are either dumb or black racists. He is not hurt by the fact the congressional republicans have the same braindead leadership. The Tea Party people will be seething by the time the 2012 elections roll around and will probably run a lot of third party candidates, maybe even for president. There is no love lost between Ron Paul and the republican establishment. A Paul Tea Party-backed candidacy, backed by Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint, might leave the republican candidate in thrid place.
for blacks, asians and hispanics he is still their best choice. Since the demographics will further change in favor of these 3 groups in the next 2-50 years, the answer is YES he will be re-elected.
Well, to give credit where due, the stress tests actually turned out to be accurate, unlike the European version, where we now see the Irish banks being rescued less than a year after the stress tests gave them a clean bill of health. That was something, but not really the sort of thing that gets people politically excited. It's nice to have a Pres who's at least technically competent, but it would have been better had he combined that with a little political fire.
Autually its about a 5 point drop from the contract I quoted The contract Optional listed is a better one imo because it shows Obama against actual opponents and not some flawless perfect unknown candidate
No one has a 100% chance to win - they could die or have some major scandal before the election. I do agree Obama is a huge favourite though. 7/22 people voted 0% or 100%. That is pretty dumb.