Poker Question - What are the odds?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by hapaboy, Jul 13, 2008.

  1. Part A calcs should match the max iterations for lottery ( 6 numbers out of 52). I’ve got 20mil or so ….sounds correct , no ?
     
    #21     Jul 31, 2008
  2. nathanos

    nathanos

    Because I am using all permutations of three pairs (Part B) divided all permutations of possible three two cards hands (Part A). You have to consider the total number of ways for both of your sets. If I am using 52*51*50*49*48*47 for Part A I have to include all possible ways the pairs can come down for Part B.

    You reduced Part A by 6*5*4*3*2*1 which only gives you only the number of 6 card combinations and says nothing about the possible number of unique PAIRS. It is like figuring the number of combinations for a giant 6 card hand. If you want to use combinations instead for both parts, you need to change Part A to reflect this, looking like

    Part B: 6*13*6*12*6*11
    Part A: (52*51/2)(50*49/2)(48*47/2)

    This way is more confusing I think which is why I did it the first way in my response to you. The easiest way to think of it is imagine you only dealt 1 hand, what are the chances of getting a pair?

    You can do it both ways, possible permutations of getting any pair?

    13*6*2 = 156

    Possible permutations of dealing two cards?

    52*51 = 2652, so 156/2652 = 1/17

    Or using combinations,

    13*6 = 78

    and

    52*51/2 combinations of two card hands because each will be counted twice.

    = 1/ 17

    I'm doing the same thing but with 3 pairs instead.
     
    #22     Jul 31, 2008
  3. yes , I think you are right. I should drop " divide by 1 thru 6 " from part A calcs
     
    #23     Jul 31, 2008
  4. ok...had few free minutes...

    Odds for everyone to get a pair :

    (52*51*50*49*48*47) / (6*2*13)*(6*2*12)*(6*2*11) =

    1 in 4943


    Flop odds :

    (46*45*44) / (4*3*2) =

    1 in 3795

    N , agree ?
     
    #24     Jul 31, 2008
  5. nathanos

    nathanos

    Agree with the first part, I think the second is (46*45*44)/6*4*2 though like I mentioned above and I'll quote below

    In my original post I think I made a calculation wrong and (46*45*44)/6*4*2 should equal 1897.5 instead of 3795. But it looks like I did it right in my final answer which should still be 1 in 9.4 million.
     
    #25     Jul 31, 2008
  6. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    after all that calculation how do you know he aint bluffing????:p
     
    #26     Aug 1, 2008