I have a question for you. In the cases where you placed an asterisk next to the hand, why did you do so? In other words, what made this a gut hand rather than a clearly playable hand? Obviously, AA KK etc... (Sklansky Group I hands) are played, but does the cut go down into group II? Would a "gut hand" be one that you might play based on being near/on the button where you would fold otherwise? I am very curious about this. I feel that "gut" is not really anything more than experience and knowledge applied to a set of factors that are too complex to extrapolate in the brief moment that a decision needs to be made. (When I was a beginning poker player, my gut told me to make some really stupid plays.) For example, certain hands in certain table positions with certain other players with known habits are more favorable than when conditions might be different. While I can't take each element and evaluate the probabilities before I decide to play or fold, my brain does this very quickly for me, thus providing a "gut" move. AA is not a gut move, it gets played. The betting may be based on "gut", but again there is much history, knowledge and experience behind the seasoned player who is trying to get the most money into the pot of a hand that he is highly likely to win. This is just my feeling. I could be way off here. I'm curious as to how you determine a gut hand vs. a non-gut hand. Thanks
Most of us seem to think that our intellect rules the roost when it is actually playing second fiddle to the emotions. The World Poker Tour is on the Travel channel on Wednesday nights for those of you who are interested. Its interesting to see how some of the top players in the world lose their cool. I dont think its a matter of controlling your emotions. The trick is to get over it before your next move. I was in a tournament yesterday and checked on the big blind behind 5 limpers with the A diamonds and a small spade. The flop came 345 of diamonds. Everybody checked. Turn was the 6 of diamonds giving me A high flush. I slowplayed and everybody checked. River was 5 of clubs. I figured the hand was over and bet $100. Everybody folded to the button who raised me $500. I was almost certain he didnt have a full house as I could not see him checking two pair with a flush draw on the board so I went all in. He called immediately and turned over the 7 of diamonds. I was aware of the possible straight flush of course but the odds were in my favor big time. He had been waiting for someone to make something just like I had. This only left me with a couple of hundred dollars in chips. I let out a long scream then took several deep breaths, regained my concentration and actually went on to win the tournament. I hope to be able to do the same with my trading from now on.
Easyrider, Don't see how you make the bet there, even for $100. Only way anyone can call you is if they have you beat, which is exactly what happened. Checking two pair into a flush and straight on board with multiple players is not a tricky play at all. With babies on the board, and the propensity to play little connectors, the 5 on the river should have been a huge red flag. Check it on the river, and be happy your flush wins a few rounds of pre-turn bets (with multiple limpers, this pays your blinds for a few rounds anyway). Heck of a comeback to win the tourney though, congrats....
Good question. Firstly, I never asterisked any hand pre-flop. For the most part I play by the book for the pocket, and any variations (eg. not raising AA) are fairly well-calculated to the type of players at the table. I am very curious about this. I feel that "gut" is not really anything more than experience and knowledge applied to a set of factors that are too complex to extrapolate in the brief moment that a decision needs to be made. [/QUOTE] That is my current hypothesis, though I am willing to question how often it is true. (When I was a beginning poker player, my gut told me to make some really stupid plays.)[/QUOTE] This is much of the reason I question the aforementioned hypothesis. For example, certain hands in certain table positions with certain other players with known habits are more favorable than when conditions might be different. While I can't take each element and evaluate the probabilities before I decide to play or fold, my brain does this very quickly for me, thus providing a "gut" move. AA is not a gut move, it gets played. The betting may be based on "gut", but again there is much history, knowledge and experience behind the seasoned player who is trying to get the most money into the pot of a hand that he is highly likely to win. This is just my feeling. I could be way off here. I'm curious as to how you determine a gut hand vs. a non-gut hand.[/QUOTE] A good explanation. It would an overstatement to say I had ever achieved "seasoned" status. So, I wanted to know how well I was making decisions. A "gut" decision was any decision I made where I wasn't making a cognitive reference to some known rule. However, I did not count decisions made when I knew I knew the rule but couldn't remember what it was (I have an untrained memory that fails me quite often) and so had to make my best guess. A "gut" move was when I had this, or a similar thought running through my head: "I have never read about this, I don't have any evidence that what I am about to do is right, but goddam it has to be! Okay, maybe this guy is an expert but he looks like a shmuck to me and I think I've got him beat so I am going all out." The first time I had a read on a player was the first time I played well at a $5/10 table. I had been sitting for about 30 minutes when to my right sits this fat gumba wearing this gaudy ring on his finger. I thought he looked like an ass and when he asked for chips I felt absolutely sure I had him pegged. Across the table was a homely looking women with a blue baseball cap who wasn't getting much respect but I figured for a pretty good player. My first hand was KK and I raised after Gumba's call. Everyone folded except the blue hat lady who re-raised. Gumba called and so did I. The flop came Q and two low-cards with no two suited. Blue hat had been under the blind and checked, Gumba bet. I raised only to be re-raised by blue hat, followed by a Gumba call. I folded, and watched closely. The next card was sub-Queen and blue hat checked - and whatta you know Gumba bet only to be raised by blue hat. Now Gumba mutters something and I immediately think, yeah what a bitch for check raising you fuckin' dope your done, now fold. Not Gumba he calls. The river is a K and now Gumba lights up and starts raising too - oh shit he made his hand!? Blue hat had no fear and took down the maxed pot with QQQ over gumba's KK xx two pair. I knew he couldn't have trip K's and had figured blue hat for the trip Q's so I wasn't surprised - but Gumba sure was, and pissed too. I had to wait 45 minutes to get another playable hand and it was not easy but I was disciplined that time - probably because I had this 250 pound carrot just waiting to be picked sitting immediately to my right. Eventually I started getting hands and blue hat and I finished taking Gumba's $300 initial buy-in as well as $300-400 additional chips he decided to give away. At the this time I hadn't been recording my hands, and my play would really not have been recorded since I had folded at the flop. But it was a gut feeling that blue hat had QQQ. Not that I had no clue going in - she had seemed to be playing well up until then, tight and aggressive - but folding a pocket pair at that point was the right move. Some might say - Yeah but you would've won with KKK! But that's hogwash, the fact is I had a losing hand at the flop and I would've been betting on a losing hand against a good player - too good to bluff out of QQQ. And, some symmetry: In one of the later hands I won with trip J's against Gumba's trip 10's while - and this was only my feeling at the time - blue hat folded two pair at the turn.
Different strokes for different folks. My thinking was that the pair of fives could easily make someone a set or two small pair or someone could be sitting there with a small diamond and would call a small bet.
There's the key. You had a read on both of them. Helmuth always says he has times where he feels like he knows exactly what the others are holding. If you knew nothing about her and only a Q showing, you may have played it out. To me, it's always about what is POSSIBLE out there...sure the odds may be in your favor, but you balance that against the other person's behavior. You had experience playing with her and made that call. I too have folded many hands that would have won. It's not an exact science. I can't tell you how many times I have folded 22 only to see the other 22 on the table. I still fold them every time. I've had a number of occassions where I've had carrots sitting around the table. A few weeks ago, I was in a game and playing tight, seeing about 20% like some of you guys. I had a stretch where I just happened to steal the blinds or I was limping along and everyone folded to me. For some reason, a guy across the table decides I am bluffing and he is going to start doing something about it. The next few hands that I play happen to be very strong and I beat him heads up 3 or 4 straight, some real bad beats for him but luck on my part. In each case, I had nearly the highest hand possible from what was on the table. After that, I owned this guy. I could limp in and raise him at any point and he would fold. I'm certain he folded far superior hands many times thereafter. I know how you feel. I've been in his shoes as well, never sure what someone has and getting beat repeatedly with solid hands. I've been on both ends of that stick. With regard to some of the "all-in" discussion. First, I don't play no-limit so I can't know what the game is truly like. It would seem reckless to me to go all in with an A high flush with a pair showing? While it may make for great entertainment on the Travel Channel for guys to go all in pre-flop, I'm trying to make money - not impress the crowd. Trading and poker are entertaining means to an end IMO. I guess I don't have the mentality to take all in bets when I can make good money year round at the $5/$10 tables. That's the way I trade too. Anyone who knows me as a trader would kick my ass at poker.
I have a question for you. In the cases where you placed an asterisk next to the hand, why did you do so? In other words, what made this a gut hand rather than a clearly playable hand? Obviously, AA KK etc... (Sklansky Group I hands) are played, but does the cut go down into group II? Would a "gut hand" be one that you might play based on being near/on the button where you would fold otherwise? I am very curious about this. I feel that "gut" is not really anything more than experience and knowledge applied to a set of factors that are too complex to extrapolate in the brief moment that a decision needs to be made. (When I was a beginning poker player, my gut told me to make some really stupid plays.) For example, certain hands in certain table positions with certain other players with known habits are more favorable than when conditions might be different. While I can't take each element and evaluate the probabilities before I decide to play or fold, my brain does this very quickly for me, thus providing a "gut" move. AA is not a gut move, it gets played. The betting may be based on "gut", but again there is much history, knowledge and experience behind the seasoned player who is trying to get the most money into the pot of a hand that he is highly likely to win. This is just my feeling. I could be way off here. I'm curious as to how you determine a gut hand vs. a non-gut hand. Thanks
In RealMoney.com today, Jeff Linderman has an article relating trading to poker- "Deal Me In to the Trading Game." (My RM sub ran out so don't ask me.)
Tournament poker is a little different than regular poker, especially no limit. I will go all in anytime I think the odds are in my favor and have a reasonable chance that someone will call. My risk is limited to the entrance fee. As a side note another behaviour parallel ive noticed between poker and trading is that when I started when I would win a tournament I would usually take a break for awhile and relax but when I lost a tournament I wanted to get right back in another one, which is probably the reverse of what should be done. I do take a break now when I lose one and am hoping I can carry this pattern over into trading.
I just started reading this thread not sure if it has been mentioned. Here is a great article on a LA poker player who I have seen on a couple of occasions and always wondered about. "He looks at a $100,000 stack the same way a home builder might view a parking lot full of heavy equipment: Its actual value is a lot less than what it can build." Quote from the article, sound familiar? http://www.laweekly.com/ink/03/26/features-kaplan.php AllenZ