Point and Figure method - trading journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by elit, Oct 31, 2012.

  1. elit


    Welcome! Here is my trading journal with my:

    technical analysis,
    point and figure charting,
    market analysis,
    sector analysis,
    Richard D. Wyckoff method analysis,
    relative strength analysis,
    and inner thoughts and feelings.

    In my trading I have been using point and figure and the Richard D. Wyckoff method for many years now. I usually do top-down analysis by first identifying the market setup, I then do sector analysis and relative strength analysis to find the strongest or weakest stocks in the strongest or weakest sectors.

    In my investing I combine fundamental analysis with the above and I use a few exceptional market timing signals for longer term bullishness or bearishness. These have showed to be far more accurate than my own feelings, so I’d rather trust the professional quantitative analysts than my own emotions. These signals are also used in my shorter term trading.

    I will start this trading journal where I gather my thoughts and post my trading ideas. Instead of writing this down in my paper journal book, I’d might as well post it here if anyone is interested in reading.

    These are my ideas, and you are invited to follow me. I like to exchange ideas and learn from my readers as well.
  2. elit


    Here is a standard Point and Figure analysis / Wyckoff Technical analysis setup for AAPL that I have been trading with success this past year.


    This is what I usually look at in my technical trading: P&F chart of the stock. Bar chart of the stock. A P&F chart of the market (S&P 500). The Relative Strength versus the market. Usually I don't do RS analysis of the sectors. I get a fairly good view on the strong and weak sectors to avoid just by viewing their charts. As long as we are stronger than market, we're usually golden.

    So what about the analysis of AAPL?
    We are in a down trend with some kind of support at around 580. We already broke the 650 support. (And I got stopped out.) We went back to lick it (Wyckoff test of ice, guys). Markets seem to want to go south, but is hesitating a bit. AAPL is short-term weaker than the market which is generally not a good sign. AAPL has been a market leader for a long time, and when the market leaders stop going up, normally the rest of the pack will follow it sideways or down.
  3. elit


    Looking at REED technical analysis today.

    On the 1% point and figure chart we are at a nice level of support at this level:


    On the Candle stick chart we can see the nice uptrend. The last candle tried to go down but closed at the top - a bullish sign.

  4. Thanks for starting this thread. I am interested in p and f and i have done some paper trading . I think p and f is best for new comers
  5. elit


    Yeah! It is the best in certain aspect, not only for newbies. I do like to view barcharts/Candlesticks also, especially if you are not using intraday data you will want to look at what is happening on a more detailed level.
  6. elit


    Let's have a look at URI, a stock I have been interested in a long time. Nice fundamentals and all.

    We have quite a nice setup. We had a strong up move on heavy volume over the 37-38 area, gapped up even. Had a pullback/flat for a few days on much lower volume and then shot up again on heavier volume.

    Another pullback/breather now, let's see the future.

  7. elit


    ECL is another stock on my list.

    I really like the uptrend it is showing on the daily and weekly point & figure charts. The candlestick charts shows the latest strong upmove on high volume and BIG bars. Somebody really wants to own this company, but taking a breather at the previous resistance, now acting as support. A pullback to the side of the creek - for using the Wyckoff trader lingo.

    Daily Point & figure chart

    with weekly point and figure chart:
  8. elit


    Today I have four strong stocks. These are in the Utilities group that has performed well and been a market leader for a period.

    First a technical analysis of AME
    here we broke through the resistance at around 35.50. Now we seems to have a quick pullback on lower volume and I would not be surprised to see us head up if markets want to go higher from here.

    We can notice a nice wyckoff spring at the end of the trading range before the breakout. For Spring traders this was just screaming out to buy. Springs are something I have always had trouble with, although they are a very reliable signal. With some hindsight in technical analysis they are a great confirmation in my opinion.

  9. elit


    Next technical analysis is DE - Deere & Company. These guys make tractors!

    Tractors are apparently selling well, because we are breaking out of every resistance point there is. The point and figure 45 degree down trend line, and any minor resistance on the way. Now we had a slight pullback, a trading range above the resisitance "creek" on diminishing volume.

    Also here we can see the Wyckoff spring in first part of october. You had to be cool to enter on it, but you had also been happy with your profits.

  10. elit


    Then we have PHM. Never heard of em...

    PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding and financial services businesses primarily in the United States.

    Alrighty then, homebuilders. People need homes right?

    Point and figure analysis - old resistance became support in the 17 level, now we are at resistance, or double top. We have a major diagonal uptrend in the bar chart. Strong.

    #10     Nov 6, 2012