Flip through timeframes until you see price making sense on your MA and/or volatility bands, until you got it well defined, dont force it, let it speak to you.
Yep, so I mainly use 1 minute and 1 Hour time frames to wait for daily 123 high and low; and I then monitor 15 and 30 minutes to observe how a trend develops using ma60. Still in 1 minute, I often get into losing position if I don't monitor A/D pattern. I got this idea from my research and my result shows that three variables - order flow(A/D) and volume - (both independent variables) and price (dependent variable) display nearly exactly the same trend pattern. Since volume is not easy to interpret and involves very subjective interpretation, I use A/D to get better interpretation of volume and price.
Although I use ma13 since most of advanced level traders seem to use ma18~20, I will try it from today!
MA setting doesnt make a difference, 18 is not really better than 20, or the ones I use or vice versa, pick a set, stick to them, and master them, remember that flat and no position is sometimes what they tell us to do. MAs are the most used technicals indicators and the least understood chances are you not using them correctly, in fact, I would bet on it.
FON is correct, there is nothing magical about any particular set of MA's. Experiment until something helps you see price development and structure. Some people use no averages...we all see things differently.
I think moving averages have filtering value, but good trading is all about handicapping risk:reward. If you can't dissect markets, trade management is tough.
I stopped using ma's on smaller timeframes awhile back, however I still use the 50/100/200 sma on the larger timeframes (day/weekly/monthly). When Al Brooks was asked why he only uses the 20ma, he simply replied that he's been using it forever, and that's just the one he kept using. I remember when I actively traded SNDK, it would obey the 20 like clockwork, until one day it didn't. I agree with the op, you'll need to keep experimenting with technical strategies until you find one that works more consistently than another. For larger timeframes, the ma's have greater value, especially when looking at the index. The SPY gapped down to the 100sma when the ES opened "limit down" the other day. There's no way to use fundamental analysis for this opening move. It would be erroneous to argue that the collective 500 stocks on the index had aggregate fundamental value to coincide with the NAV at that particular moment in time. It DID, however, coincide with the 100sma, and that's why SPY bounced. It was just a technical movement. Large cap stocks that are part of the index also tend to obey the larger ma's when looking at long term charts. When oil crashed to the mid 20's, CVX was down 7% that day, magically trading down to the RISING 200sma on the monthly chart, which at that time was a 7 year low for the stock. This was also the day XLE bottomed at $50, which also happened to be a 10 year support line. Some bozo from Citibank said oil was then going to $10, but oil staged a comeback and XLE rallied almost 40%. Again, NOTHING had changed in the fundamentals to warrant Chevron to magically bounce at that level, except for the fact that the 200sma was hit, and the buyers stepped up in droves.
Look at the chart. If it clearly is moving in one direction it is trending. Now throw up your favorite MA. Set an Uncle stop. Bang the MA until it no longer looks like it is continuing. Sometimes it lasts an hour...or days. Roll with it and go fishing when it looks confusing.