Hey guys. I am looking for as many opinions as possible regarding my performance. I am currently in my third year of day trading the ES having no previous experience in anything related whatsoever. My first 12 months in trading i netted 10% while my second 12 months netted me 20%. These figures are after commissions but not counting operating costs such as internet usage, electricity or anything like that. Please don't make comments about please prove it or whatever because I'm not trying to get clients or something. I really just want to see where I am compared to other people...whether I am below par or normal or what. Also, what would a prop firm say if they saw these results?
A futures prop firm that backs traders completely will want you to do that in two weeks... reason being, if you are trading futures you will need to be able to scale your strategy and use the leverage provided. The Chicago prop model does not accept employee capital (they can't by CME rules) but you have to leverage and scale big time. An equity prop firm (NYC) will let you trade SPY and quite frankly you are contributing capital and they could really care less what you do.
Here's how to judge your performance: You've been consistently profitable over two years of trading. Did you attain this profitability by following a specific trading plan (business plan) with very few rule violations and is your profitability in line with the results your business plan predicted? If so, then your performance is excellent and you can comfortably size up and increase your returns. Did you attain this profitability by using leverage itself as an edge (averaging down until positions eventually became profitable), or by cheating (violating your rules, but somehow coming out OK in the end)? If so, then your risk of ruin is high despite your positive results so far. Are the returns over these two years significantly less than your trading plan predicted? If so, then either your trading plan cannot withstand varying market conditions or your ability to follow it is poor. Only you can judge your performance.
The performance I described is from failing miserably at the start, making it all back once I had a plan, then screwing up my plan, then coming up with a similar strategy, then having part of that strategy not work, then getting rid of the part that didnt work anymore, and now here I am. No i dont cheat anymore. Non-strategy related rules would account for 5-10%. Also I'm not really sure what you meant by using leverage as an edge....I don't average down or whatever I take a loss when my rules tell me to.
feng, You should be thrilled, and why the hell do you require validation from a crowd of miserable retail punters ? Keep refining your own system, and btw everybody has a tortuous path to consistency.
bone...i'm confused....you are first telling me that a prop firm expects my best annual performance in two weeks...now you tell me i should be thrilled...? i really dont know what i should think now...unless that reply was sarcasm that i didnt catch.
imo-the question itself make no sense to me without numbers... i did make 2550% last year and 10000% this year..how i'm doing compared to others? wtf? you probably know from emg that 98% just lose..so.. i guess you doing good... jokes aside-it is entirely possible that you catch some very trendy market(dunno what futures you are trading-see above). like the old are saying-make sure you are not mixing your genius system with the simple trend..happens to many people i know,who think that they are super traders back in 1999-2000
OK, you want to compare hard metrics. How much capital are you using ? What intraday performance margin are you using to generate that return. How much capital do you have in your account and what size are you trading and what frequency do you trade. Do you know how to calculate a Sharpe Ratio ?
As a comparison, I have a client who went live on March 01, 2011 with a $25K account. He has returned 45% net on that as of yesterday. In four months, on a net basis, he has over $36K in his account. Advantage Futures clearing, CTS front end, eSignal running my models, those expenses deducted from the account. Non-Member rates. Swing trading futures spreads. Max drawdown ridiculously modest. Overnight SPAN performance bond margin credits of 65 % to 90 %.
I have another client who went live on April 01, 2011. Same scenario, returned 10% net all expenses as of Friday June 24. And that includes an impulsive scalping debacle which earned my wrath because he deviated from his trading plan. Swing trading futures spreads. Of course, I have 60 clients who keep trading their 'bread and butter' core trades and swing trade my spread for an additional revenue stream. And they were really good before they hired me.