Can someone explain what all this economic data means. Long bonds or Stocks? What are Europe implications on the US? With all this monetary easing and keeping interest rates at record lows, wont fund managers be forced into risky assets such as equities to seek return? If Greece fails shouldn't investors want to get out of bonds and into securities because government debt is not safe in the EU? My head is spinning trying to understand whether to focus trading Bonds or ES where this market is going during this elevated vix period.
Try to focus on money supply (growth or contraction), then extrapolate to assets (equities or fixed income). A failure in the periphery will lead to a PIIGS exodus into higher quality Government debt (German, US, Canadian etc). Global equities will tank as lenders and borrowers retrench from widespread haircuts related to defaults and fear of further losses. That assumes no intervention. Likely the ECB/IMF/German/French will step-up and tinker to soften the impact.
John Murphy said in "applying technical strategies to todays markets", that financial & oil & gold stocks vs bonds move in opposite direction.