Please help me calculate an intraday-based volatility stop

How about to look at the options volume of that market instead of that chart. Options demand show a quick indicator on where the price might move. Not totally accurate but it shows the "sentiment" of the market.

 

I already use a time based volatility indicator and it does a decent job of keeping my stop outside noise. I don't get stopped out unless I'm actually wrong. The problem is that I need to eyeball it for each instrument. I want to automate it.

In reality, I just want to make sure that I give myself X% of an average/median swing move to be considered "wrong" rather than "the last X time period range".

So the moving average crossover fits the bill because:

1. It is difficult to get the implementation wrong
2. It appears to work

And of course if it doesn't work, back to eyeballing... lol

 

ATR is highly unreliable as a measure of volatility imo because it's badly skewed and lagged. I just use my risk control measures as a guide to set my stops so that way I don't risk too much of my trading capital. I find that works the best cuz no matter how small the volatility may be, if it's going to result in too much loss for me, it's too much.

 

There is value in this approach as well.

 

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Factor in one's personality\ i like some gold, just not to trade it\LOL .
QQQ [like NQ] has almost always been wilder with swings.
Last time i daytraded a QQQ inverse derivative, using your chart, i had an auto stop on swing 3, which was past your number 2. Worked out fine except swing 1 + 2 did not look near as good as your chart /thus the exit on swing 3.
ALSO i have avoided qqq derivatives , much of this year, but the principal is the same.........

 

Keep uptrend swing length and downtrend swing length for last ten days average. So when swings are wider, have to risk more and smaller risk less.

 

I think I would use time of day also.
Moves in the first hour or two tend to be larger.
So, use wider stops in the more active opening/closing hours. Tighter stops where there is less chance of a big move.
I just eyeballed some 30min charts on BULZ components and most of the largest bars are the 1st.

 

How are you calculating uptrend swing length/downtrend swing length? That's the key thing for me.

 

Today was the first day I used the swing calculations for stops and thus sizing, worked peeeerfectly.

 

Be careful, man., Tuesday and today were a slow trending day north. I would dare say unusual. Steel yourself for much more price-action/ranging/et al.