Please critique my first trade idea

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by lentus, Jun 23, 2019.

  1. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Well, lol... I hate to rain on his parade... but the Igor cat on Twitter is using the 4.9M shares short and comparing it to the "shares outstanding" (72M). There's a big difference between the float and the shares outstanding. The float, the stock available to be traded by the public, on this stock is 6.75M shares. Ie, 67% of the float is short. Thats the metric one needs to consider when contemplating a possible short squeeze. One would think Igor would know that. Makes me go "hmmm" actually. Like what's his game?

    That other link you posted (fintel) was for the day's short volume. That has nothing to do with the short interest. And that daily metric is really not a reliable indicator of things anyway. Actual short interest is filed bi-monthly... the day to day volume gets way convoluted as to whats really going on behind the scenes in how that number is generated. Too long to explain, just trust me on that lol.

    Here ya go.... use this. 10th column over on the top.

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=JMIA

    There's your short data.
     
    #21     Jun 27, 2019
    kj5159, Overnight and NQurious like this.
  2. lentus

    lentus

    Ihor specifically says % of float. I really doubt that he's wrong. Like I said, he's an expert on shortselling data. He supplies short data to NASDAQ/Bloomberg/Reuters/etc

    https://shortsight.com/about/

    Screwing this up in a public tweet would be pretty bad for him.

    Here the float is 62.7M and outstanding is 78.4M

    https://research.investors.com/stock-quotes/nyse-jumia-technologies-ads-jmia.htm

    Here the float is 20.25M

    https://iextrading.com/apps/stocks/JMIA

    Perhaps certain data source have the wrong float numbers. I believe the float number used by your source is likely incorrect.
     
    #22     Jun 27, 2019
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    As if that has never happened to anyone else on the Internet, ever, in the history of forever.

    No, Mr. A tweeted it, so he MUST be 100% correct on what he spouted after some shivas and a cigar, and Mr. B who counters the argument in a tweet is WRONG WRONG WRONG!

    Careers will be totally destroyed if the message is wrong THIS ONE TIME.



    Get a grip, lentus.
     
    #23     Jun 27, 2019
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Ok... since I like this stuff, I went ahead and went down the rabbit hole you've opened to see what's really up so we can put this to rest.

    That 6.75M float number on Finviz is in fact incorrect. Someone made a mistake. Its off by a factor of 2. They were confused since each ADR share that is tradeable... represents 2 shares of the ordinary stock.

    So all these web links aside... lets go straight to the source.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/filing.ashx?filingid=13359030#D650749D424B4_HTM_ROM650749_23

    13.5M shares were offered during the IPO.

    As you can see.... 13.5M of the ADR's (they call them ADS's) were all that was offered.
    Scroll down to page 181.

    "Upon completion of this offering, the closing of the Concurrent Private Placement and the issuance of the Anti-Dilution Shares, we will have 13,500,000 ADSs outstanding, representing approximately 17.7% of our outstanding ordinary shares or, if the underwriters exercise in full their option to buy additional ADSs, 15,525,000 ADSs outstanding representing approximately 19.8% of our outstanding ordinary shares. All of the ADSs sold in this offering will be freely transferable by persons other than by our “affiliates” without restriction or further registration under the Securities Act. Sales of substantial amounts of our ordinary shares or ADSs in the public market could adversely affect prevailing market prices of our ADSs.

    Prior to this offering, there has been no public market for our ADSs or our ordinary shares in the United States, and although we have been approved to list the ADSs on the NYSE, we cannot assure you that a regular trading market for the ADSs will develop. We do not intend to list our ordinary shares on a trading market in the United States."


    Now in absence of any subsequent filing with the SEC, which there has not been as of today... this is pretty much the float. 15.525M

    As you can also see... go to page 13


    Ordinary shares to be outstanding immediately after this offering, the Concurrent Private Placement and the issuance of the Anti-Dilution Shares
    152,766,494 ordinary shares (corresponding to 76,383,247 ADSs) assuming no exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional ADSs; or, 156,816,494 ordinary shares (corresponding to 78,408,247 ADSs) assuming full exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional ADSs.


    So... 76.3M to 78.4M is the total # of shares outstanding.

    As of June 14th, the latest report of open short interest as released by the NYSE... there were 5.87M shares sold short. The WSJ figure is accurate.

    https://quotes.wsj.com/JMIA

    So 5.87 divided by 15.525 is 38%.
    Thats your short interest, or pretty damn close.

    If someone is inclined to short it today, the current borrow rate is about 26%. It was as high as 60% in early June.

    So... Regarding Igor and his Tweet... did you notice in that thread several people called him out on his numbers (just like I did). He made no effort to explain himself nor did he admit his mistake. So whatever. But no stock that has only a 6.26% open short interest sports a 42.37% borrow rate. An "expert" would know that. Maybe Igor was hitting the sauce that day.
     
    #24     Jun 28, 2019
    murray t turtle, lentus and NQurious like this.
  5. NQurious

    NQurious

    VZ be like ...

     
    #25     Jun 28, 2019
    Nobert, lentus and vanzandt like this.
  6. lentus

    lentus

    This seems right. Surprised Ihor was so wrong and disappointed he won't address the concerns. Maybe he was hitting the Wall Street sauce that day lol.

    Where did you get the borrow rates?
     
    #26     Jun 28, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  7. lentus

    lentus

    #27     Jun 28, 2019
  8. %%
    Good post. Even an accurate data provider like William O'Neil's , investors.com, makes data mistakes -but not many of them.:cool::cool:
     
    #28     Jul 1, 2019
    NQurious likes this.
  9. lentus

    lentus

    vanzandt?
     
    #29     Jul 4, 2019
  10. lentus

    lentus

    JMIA critical support at IPO price breaking on increasing volume..

    VFF seemed like going my way but now went back up to my entry point in a weird way. Since this is a fundamental play with technical timing. I'm holding for a stop or a profit target. No breakevens, moving stops, etc.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2019
    #30     Jul 30, 2019