Playing the Saddam Gap

I'm with bolts......

Michael B.

 

Oh no, no - the conspiracy stuff is starting. This ought to be enough to get harryrader lit up good.



Saddam Was Not in Hiding But a Captive

DEBKAfile Special Report

December 14, 2003, 6:55 PM (GMT+02:00)






A number of questions are raised by the incredibly bedraggled, tired and crushed condition of this once savage, dapper and pampered ruler who was discovered in a hole in the ground on Saturday, December 13:

1. The length and state of his hair indicated he had not seen a barber or even had a shampoo for several weeks.

2. The wild state of his beard indicated he had not shaved for the same period

3. The hole dug in the floor of a cellar in a farm compound near Tikrit was primitive indeed – 6ft across and 8ft across with minimal sanitary arrangements - a far cry from his opulent palaces.

4. Saddam looked beaten and hungry.

5. Detained with him were two unidentified men, two AK-47 assault guns and a pistol, none of which were used.

6. The hole had only one opening. It was not only camouflaged with mud and bricks – it was blocked. He could not have climbed out without someone on the outside removing the covering.

7. And most important, $750,000 in 100-dollar notes were found with...

him – but no communications equipment of any kind, whether cell phone or even a carrier pigeon for contacting the outside world.

According to DEBKAfile analysts, these seven anomalies point to one conclusion: Saddam Hussein was not in hiding; he was a prisoner.

After his last audiotaped message was delivered and aired over al Arabiya TV on Sunday November 16, on the occasion of Ramadan, Saddam was seized, possibly with the connivance of his own men, and held in that hole in Adwar for three weeks or more, which would have accounted for his appearance and condition. Meanwhile, his captors bargained for the $25 m prize the Americans promised for information leading to his capture alive or dead. The negotiations were mediated by Jalal Talabani’s Kurdish PUK militia.

These circumstances would explain the ex-ruler’s docility – described by Lt.Gen. Ricardo Sanchez as “resignation” – in the face of his capture by US forces. He must have regarded them as his rescuers and would have greeted them with relief.

From Gen. Sanchez’s evasive answers to questions on the $25m bounty, it may be inferred that the Americans and Kurds took advantage of the negotiations with Saddam’s abductors to move in close and capture him on their own account, for three reasons:

A. His capture had become a matter of national pride for the Americans. No kudos would have been attached to his handover by a local gang of bounty-seekers or criminals. The country would have been swept anew with rumors that the big hero Saddam was again betrayed by the people he trusted, just as in the war.

B. It was vital to catch his kidnappers unawares so as to make sure Saddam was taken alive. They might well have killed him and demanded the prize for his body. But they made sure he had no means of taking his own life and may have kept him sedated.

C. During the weeks he is presumed to have been in captivity, guerrilla activity declined markedly – especially in the Sunni Triangle towns of Falluja, Ramadi and Balad - while surging outside this flashpoint region – in Mosul in the north and Najef, Nasseriya and Hilla in the south. It was important for the coalition to lay hands on him before the epicenter of the violence turned back towards Baghdad and the center of the Sunni Triangle.

 

I wish that I could move my money to play the markets like you guys. But, I have to set aside an extra $500 to meet my possible medical deductions for the forseable future. 100% change - $500 to $1,000 deduction. Maybe good news and cheer like this will keep more people healthy and out of debt. That's why the market will definitely gap and continue on to Dow 15,000 by May 2004...

 

what a bunch of crap

 

Sorry for such a primitive question....this espionage stuff is out of my league.

Why give him money and a pistol if he were prisoner?

Michael B.

 

Say what you want about the above post....he didn't look like a man in charge.

 

the US markets will be emotional on Monday.

it will be interesting to see how the markets of the major non-supporters of the war -- France and Germany -- perform. also the biggest war supporter -- the UK.

my guess is the initial reaction will be:
1) good for US stocks. if the market opens up 2% as waggie suggets (sounds plausible to me), i will try to sell.
2) good for dollar.
3) bad for gold, both as a surrogate currency and as a safe-haven in dangerous times.
4) bad for oil.
5) good for bonds.

in the end, i don't think this is the huge deal that the market may perceive on monday. we still have problems. much of the iraqi insurgency hates us because we are a foreign occupier (and a Christian one at that). the baathist remnants may become hyper-active next week. we still have a huge current account deficit, trade deficit, etc.

i will try to fade the emotional trading on monday. but the most important thing is to react to the market tomorrow, not what we now think will happen.

good trading!

 

Are people stupid or what? They got Saddam so Bush is a hero now, a moron no longer. And the market is going to the moon . Let me laugh. I read this NYT article in which political analysts all seem to agree this is huge for Bush and Dems are toast . What?

So you start a war based on lies and dubious intelligence, have hundreds of your own people and thousands of Iraqis killed, fail for months to capture the tyrant you came to overthrow and then when finally you find the powerless ex- dictator hidden for months in a basement in a bum like-condition with no communication devices whatsoever and no guerillas to defend him, you declare victory! ? And everybody says Amen, we won the war. Let's buy stocks.

Give me a f*cking break. It will soon become clear that Saddam was and is irrelevant to the situation in Iraq. Worse, what if he admits to not having sought to develop WMD?
As for what the market is going to do, I don't know but I would not load up on stocks on Monday. Too many people telling you it's a sure bet...

 

And what would you look like after being hunted for many many months by a large military force? Just curious as to what you expected him to look like...

 

Never mentioned if the AK or pistol had ANY bullets.