Playing the Saddam Gap

Discussion in 'Trading' started by MTG, Dec 14, 2003.

  1. Don't worry - they'll get OBL in September 2004, give or take a few days. But the timing will be impeccable!
     
    #21     Dec 14, 2003
  2. Upside Gap N Trap stats last 6 months for Monday openings (QQQ):

    6/02 TRAP
    7/07 No Trap
    7/14 No Trap
    8/18 No Trap
    9/02 No Trap
    10/13 No Trap
    11/03 No Trap
    11/24 No Trap
    12/01 No Trap

    The stats make sense because Monday is (1) usually bullish
    and (2) usually not a reversal day
     
    #22     Dec 14, 2003
  3. This is just what the market needed. It shows the power, resolve & patience of the american military and should boost the greenback. Which in turn, should help the Stock Markets. Now foreign investors should feel a little more secure about reinvesting in the American economy. It would be nice to see those short the $ get their ass handed to them this week. Im all long right now (long qqq,smh,flex,adobe & vrty). I think this should be the catalyst the markets needs to push higher til the end of the year - xmas rally starts early tommorrow!
     
    #23     Dec 14, 2003
  4. Funny how one man, even an infamous one, can influence a global economy so tremendously.
     
    #24     Dec 14, 2003
  5. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    Saddam is probably going to say he moved all the WMD to Syria, so next we will have to fight there. Also, havent they been saying for the last few months that al-Duri is running the show, not Saddam? And a lot of the most recent action has seemed to be outside the hotspot "sunni triangle" and in the North. There was a big article on MSNBC that Osama has cut his spending in Afghanistan by more than 50% and was starting to move all his guys to Iraq because it presented a better chance to kill Americans than Afghan. does. So, this doesnt really change a thing.

    Brandon

    PS...I dont know if I believe any of what I just said, but I don't know if I believe the opposite either..just trying to play the Devils Advocate since everyone seems to be 100% sure this is a good thing for the market, and in my experiance when thats the case.........
     
    #25     Dec 14, 2003
  6. taodr

    taodr

    My personal opinion is this information about saddam was 'leaked" hence the upturn in the markets thursday and friday. They must have been watching him and waiting for appropriate time for the catch. Those with inside information have positioned themselves well. No doubt they will sell into the rally but will short the dickens thereafter. Bin laden is the real terrorist, this capture will just quicken American departure from Iraq.
     
    #26     Dec 14, 2003
  7. since everyone seems to be 100% sure this is a good thing for the market, and in my experiance when thats the case



    But Brandon....These are Elite Traders!

    Michael B.
     
    #27     Dec 14, 2003
  8. Pabst

    Pabst

    Seems like news always follows the least path of resistance in prices. Just when you think it's safe to fade.....bam. I went home ultra long on 9/10 trying to pick a bottom. Ugh! But unlike 3000 others, at least I got to live and talk about it. Can't put a price on that.
     
    #28     Dec 14, 2003
  9. Should see a tremendous amount of "early" unwinding of options/futures positions by derivative desks and market-makers that will really push the volume up on Monday and Tuesday such that TRIPLE WITCH FRIDAY will be a non-event.

    :)
     
    #29     Dec 14, 2003
  10. Bolts

    Bolts

    I don't think this will have much affect on the resistance directly, but it will have a huge positive effect on most Iraqis. They were still living in fear of Saddam until today. Could see more men joining the Iraqi army and police.

    Markets will gap way up and fill the gap very quickly, in like 20-30 minutes.
     
    #30     Dec 14, 2003