How strong is the seasonality of Platinum? What drives demand/supply? Can anyone recommend links about Platinum? Are the futures traded primarily by specs? locals? Any bullish/bearish comments?
Seasonality for platinum right now is bullish until late-April or early May time frame. Demand is primarily driven in the form of investment (Asian demand has always been good) and within the automotive and fusion technology industries. Platinum has catalytic qualities and is in high demand as a result. It is much more dense than gold and is considered to be about 50x more rare than gold. Supplies mostly come from South Africa and from within the Siberian region of the Russian Federation. There has been a deficit of platinum supplies being to fed to the market in recent years and this has caused prices to appreciate dramatically. Platinum is a favored investment vehicle for ultra-high net worth individuals as the rarity and pricing aspects are bar none in the world of precious metals. I continue to remain extremely bullish on platinum prices as I have been for about 4 years now. Trading the platinum contract on either NYMEX or TOCOM is tricky. I would not recommend trading this contract actively because the spreads are very wide outside of the floor hours. Most of the business is conducted in a professional and commercial manner from what I can see and the speculative interest remains small and is driven mostly from industry. Position trading in the PL contract can bring about some nice payoff but traders will need to learn how sit with their position in platinum...
I agree with you on platinum, though I am not currently holding any positions. I believe a long-term strategy could be successfully pursued in platinum as in silver and gold, and I am looking for re-entry on confirmation of trend continuation . However, isn't it true that palladium is to platinum what silver is to gold? Meaning, historically, palladium has lagged platinum? Palladium fills platinum's industrial functions, and is priced at 1/4th the price of platinum. The major drawback, perhaps, is that russia controls all the reserves in palladium. However, a breakout in Palladium from the triangular pattern that the other three precious metals have now broken out of, will also signal the confirmation of a major double bottom formation, the target beeing 580 or so.
Palladium looks fine here if 340 holds. The problem with this metal is that several automakers got burned in 2000 when they tried to switch from platinum to palladium. Not many investors are interested as far as I can tell. I only see max upside in palladium to 500 or so while platinum is just starting to breakout from a very bullish triangle here. Current PnF target is $2020/oz.
I agree totally with you on Platinum, having bought 1/2 of my position on break above 1500. Looking for successful re-test for the last 1/2 Palladium I agree on the problems regarding russia's dominance, and will not buy the metal until a break out of its major triangular pattern.
Pt broke through 2K? Huh? Why? Anyone else see this as ridiculously rich? If Au clips 1K soon, then I'll reevaluate. But apart from a 'supply shortage' which is sorta suspect, why? May have to reexamine Pd. Hard to contemplate buying here.
S. Africa power shortage situation must be worse than reported.... wouldn't it be nice if gold would pop $50 a day???