dp, I was watching those as well.. but how do you know which one will lead the other.. It seems when I play the YM lead .. the NQ or ES leads.. and vice versa.. Also, I notice you said you use pivots.. I watch them as well.. but only on the ES.. do you watch pivot levels in all 3.. ES, NQ & YM.. thanks for all your help..
My model was also "lucky" 1st Top = 10582 near my Feynman LT = 10579.2 Bottom = 10477.63 near my cross-pattern = 10475 2nd Top = 10592.44 near my Feynman LT (in counterclock path) = 10591.8 For Feynman like effect see previous charts: http://www.econometric-wave.com/mar...-like-effect_dji_scale2_081003_for_091003.gif http://www.econometric-wave.com/mar...r/dji/141003/introduction_to_cycle_theory.gif (for central concept see http://www.econometric-wave.com/articles/1/home.html.html) <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=410039>
You don't know, so you remain available to take whatever the market is willing to give you. If the ES leads, you take the NQ, unless the ES is hitting S or R, in which case you look for a reversal in the event that the other is obviously weak. If the NQ leads, take the ES, with the same caveats. It's all a balancing act, but the critical element is S/R. As for the pivots, I follow them in the ES and NQ, but I don't trade them in isolation. I look for other S/R to confirm them. Right now, for example, there's plenty of obvious S/R provided by price alone. If a pivot level is just hanging out there in the middle of nowhere, it's unlikely to have much influence.
Quote from Trend Fader: "I am not calling the final top in the market.. just saying that i am not buying here and building a short." So what exactly are you saying here . . . Are you saying that you are not "top picking" but actually building a short position? Why? What divergences have occured for you to try and sell this market for a position trade? By the way, please don't call me dude. I'm 44 years old, and a former member of the COMEX and NYBOT. #4 WTC RIP
I have to agree with waggie 945. The VIX is just a whisker away from a multi-year low(15.50).Sentiment is 66% bullish.Institutional,fund,401k,and tax return revenue should keep the major indexes, at very least,stable for the first quarter. At the end of the second quarter,military spending is reflected in the GDP.In 2003 this stimulous accounted for 70% of GDP.Iwould think its reasonable to assume this years military spending,will add as much,if not more to overall GDP growth.I believe this years number is about 50 billion more than last year.Judging by last years performance, I dont expect any meaningful correction in the first half of 04'.The major indexes have had great runs and since there hasn't already been a correction,and the indexes are ignoring valuations,fundamentals,and for the most part,anything else that would cause at least a moderate hiccup,I would also think its resonable to assume the uptrend will continue at least through June or July.If the econonmy slows down in the third quarter look for another rate cut,50 basis points.Purpose of another rate cut you ask.To reinvigorate the refi market so people can have more disposable income.I know it sounds a little far fetched, but would you have believed anyone at the beginning of 2003 who said the DOW would finish the year above 10000 ,and the NAZDAQ would add almost 50% by years end?
So why is the thread called "Pivots Rule Again"? I seem to have missed the point of its being initiated.