Pivots do NOT work

Discussion in 'Trading' started by BestGuruEver, Dec 26, 2008.

  1. LOL. OK, bad title just to get you click on the link. However, I still am curious people's LONG - TERM success with pivots.

    1. There are at least 15 pivots every given day ; monthly, weekly and daily, times 5 (R2 to S2).

    So, the odds are one of these 15 might come into play, and they usually line up close to a fib number or support/resistance. I know, makes it stronger.

    I used to sell under monthly pivot, buy weekly S2 and yada, yada, yada...

    My question: How do pivots work best?

    My 2 cents: support/resistance on a 60-minute is very good, then look at monthly pivots, then weekly, and then daily. under daily pivot, sell.

    Use fibs and maybe volume for confirmation.

    Please don't say "if trend day, sell this....if range day, buy this.....because you really only know trend/range in hindsight."

    If i think i see an obvious trend, i will sell hopefully consolidation at daily S2. or a rally back to pivot or S1. If i think range, then daily R1 to S1.

    I'm just curious how other traders use pivots.

  2. bighog

    bighog Guest

    Well try this on for a laugh. You are not going to find out by being a complete ass.

    Just do us a favor and keep feeding your account and either you will find the answer before going broke or keep being a fool trying to find out by asking loaded questions.
    HOG OUT until next year. :)
  3. OP, your thread title is correct. Well, they work some of the time, but not enough to make a consistent profit. And you could have added all the rest of the garden variety indicators and price action patterns available on most trading platforms and books, too.

    Is anyone surprised?
  4. For trend followers, pivots are self-fulfilling prophecies.

    And they work well, but like any tool, they are useful only to those who know how to use them.

    Every day I trade, which is almost everyday, I use them. It took months of intense study after market hours until I finally realized how pivot points are to be used.

    I've talked about my approach to pivot points, gaps, previous day's levels, open, opening range on the ES journal. I rather not repeat myself.
  5. Pivot points work well for intraday trading, but I find them much less useful for longer term trading (weekly, monthly).
  6. ================
    Best G;
    Well ,as you may figure from the pivot websites;
    derivatives traders use them.

    You can used a free 36'' yardstick perfectly/profitably to measure a home;
    not that any S&R is perfect, as a yardstick for long periods.Most pro home appraisers use something different to measure , but does have 36'' in it.

    True, you '' know trend /range'' , in hindsight;
    but lots of things give trend hints , signals/probabilities.

    DEC has been not near as profitable [so far]as NOV, part of it maybe FED, part of it overdue/overdue bear rally. 50 dma differs in DEC

    But i dont use those pivots much anymore, but wouldnt say a 36 inch yard sticks doesnt work;
    simply prefer 50 dma, get smaller after loss[ another probable hint 50dma trend has changed], discretion............................................

    Long term,200dma is still bearish , but DEC days/hours differ.
  7. Pivots work great for LongerTerm Contrairian plays.

    I have never heard of ShortTerm traders using it successfully without major drawdowns.
  8. sogodo


    "coinfluence of the foll'g coinfluences" :) :

    * monthly/weekly/daily/4hrs support/resistance levels

    * monthly/weekly/daily/4hrs pivots (pit+demark+woody+mclennan)

    * monthly/weekly/daily/4hrs/main fractal(s) Fibo levels

    * RSI(2)/RSI(7)/RSI(14) signals

    * "candle outside Bollinger Band" signals

    * if there is no trend in the 2-3 timeframes (ADX knows), MACD(3,10,15) divergences are added to measure/predict future impulses; otherwise EMA crossovers work

    * dojis

    * volume dynamics on all timeframes

    add ATR(7) to filter out noise and calculate stops

    to avoid messy charts, use hidden script placing only tiny digits (bigger value means more weight for final decision-making process) under/over the proper candles, plus some MAJOR levels (R/S, stops, etc), for discretionary trading

    works for me
  9. Useless stuff, learn to spot support and resistance created by price action not by your calculator.

    Market profile, floor pivots, astrology numbers, really ? No really !?


  10. Well spoke, Suze!
    #10     Feb 20, 2009