Forget the spy ...just buy FNGS or MAGS. Just keep adding to any dip and sit back and collect free money....nearly Impossible where the mags will dip and spy wouldn't so better off buying mags amd fngs and multiply your return to unbelievable amounts of free money.
That said, even in 2008 like settings over the long term those huge drops will be a fraction of gains so its still worth DCA no matter how they play. Timing the market is a losing endeavor, and if you try to wait for a crash, which could end up being years away, you will miss out on dividends while also taking the risk it will not fall down below—or even to—the level you could have initially gotten in to begin with.
I think the tech ETF's like SMH, FNGS, VGT etc will outperform the overall market. Tech is the future. Phones, exploration, communications, logistics will run everything. I just see more upside to tech ETF's than overall market ETF's that mirror the S&P, despite Warren Buffet's affinity to it. He's never been a technological investor.
I started out this year: 20% NAIL (3X XHB) 20% FNGU (3X FNGS) 20% SOXL (3X SMH) 10% NVDL (2X NVDA) 15% TBIL 15% Various fixed income ETFs/CEFs I gave up on NAIL about late April since it was obvious the homebuilding stocks no longer went up due to lower rates. Even HD & LOW are dogs now. I am now at: 25% FNGU 25% SOXL 20% NVDL 10% TBIL 20% Various fixed income ETFs/CEFs I've noticed that the floating rate ETFs (BRLN, SRLN, LONZ,etc.) have started to go down a little along with the low rated junk bond ETFs (XCCC, XB, etc.). The higher rated junk bond ETFs have done okay like HYG, JNK. The CLO ETFs & CEFs have done pretty well probably since most are BB or higher. The most amazing leveraged CLO CEF I have is FSCO, it is up 35% 1yr along with a 11% yield. Its done better than the QQQ. *CEF = Closed End Fund
You don't think at all that's too heavily weighted in tech, if the nasdaq were to drop 20% you would see those gains in FNGU quickly vanish. Even if fngu were to double to a thousand next week the drop on 3x etf tech can be extremely nasty. Fun easy money on way up but the drop in that particular etf can be scary....if it can rise 100 dollars in only 5 or 6 days it can wipe those gains out just as quickly. And speaking of tech etfs. For my retirement I added a mutual fund heavily weighted in tech, it owns alot of nvda and Facebook etc, you k own the same thing all funds own in tech, I have been in the green ever since buying it earlier this year and it just literally prints money day in a day out...averaging a .25 to .75 gain daily. It's actually frightening hiw quick it has gone up and how little risk there is. I wasis...the problem I'm having and what I'm not liking is that each of my purchases the last 6 months have been higher than the one before, I do NOT like cost averaging in as a stock rises, but for now it is what it is. ....its out pacing the spy at the moment too... Spy ytd 16% Tech fund 23%
Its my opinion this market is just AI spending & global warming spending. Most other things aren't working except a few niche plays like ELF, BROS, CAVA, CMG, COST, LLY, NVO, etc. I own all those as well although mainly using options. It is a strange market that is so heavily skewed to NVDA & its enablers. It simply doesn't make a lot of sense to buy KO, PEP, T, VZ, etc. The truth is we are probably pretty close to a recession but its more likely a slowdown and it doesn't make sense to buy cyclicals if the marginal profitability is falling. My portfolio is heavily skewed to tech because that's where the profitability is, sadly. That's why I own so much fixed income, it's at least a partial hedge. I do own deep out of the money puts on NVDA, currently the Jan 2025 100 puts. I mean if NVDA collapses you can bet this market will tank hard.
Not sure I'd bet against Nancy Pelosi. She and others in Congress magically have a better ROI than Warren Buffet. She just reported buying 10,000 shares of Nvidia yesterday, and she doesn't lose.
so you do realize you lost money with the following stats right? Based on the data from several reliable sources, the increase in the cost of groceries and other essential goods over the past four years has been significant. Here are some key findings: Food and Beverages: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food and beverages indicates that prices have risen by 22.13% from 2020 to 2024. This translates to an average annual inflation rate of about 5.12% for food and beverages alone (OfficialData) (FRED). Overall Inflation: The overall inflation rate from 2020 to 2024 was approximately 21.1% for various consumer goods, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Specific Items: Eggs: The price of eggs has seen a dramatic increase, with reports indicating spikes of over 100% during certain periods, especially due to supply chain disruptions and other economic factors. Gasoline: The price of gasoline has also significantly increased. For example, the price per gallon of gas has roughly doubled from around $2.50 to $5.00 in many areas. Utilities: Utility costs have seen an average increase of around 33.33%, reflecting higher energy prices and other factors. Weighted Average: Given the significant increases in these essential items, a more accurate reflection of the increased cost of living over the past four years would indeed be higher than the initial estimate of 12.10%. If we account for these substantial increases, particularly in groceries, gas, and utilities, the actual increase in cost of living might be closer to 30% to 40% or even higher for some households, depending on their specific spending patterns. Realistic Estimation: If your grocery costs have truly quadrupled (from $100 to $400 per week), that represents a 300% increase, which is much higher than the average inflation rate. Applying similar increases across other categories would result in a much higher overall increase in the cost of living. Conclusion Given the significant price increases in key categories like groceries, gas, and utilities, it is reasonable to estimate that the overall increase in the cost of living over the past four years could be between 30% and 40%, or even higher in some cases. This more accurately reflects the real-world experiences many consumers are facing.
I just have DOTM puts in case the ride ends. I own close to $100K in NVDA & AVGO mainly through leveraged ETFs & options.