...On Monday S&P has declined to a 2 day low Whyohwhy proclaimed he was right wow wow wow When S&P reversed and bulls came charging in They took his dough, his car and his ET log-in
Seems you're right romik. It's tough trying to make a profit as a prophet - perhaps he could try life as an escapist. Nothing bad about making a wrong call - just don't remove the post when you're instructing a newbie on how certain you are in your ability. A wrong call is all part of his instruction.
I mean he could be right and the market might decline today, but going around making suggestions to people uncertain about analyses like 'just short it Monday' - is a stupid thing to do.
What could be interesting is if we turn down late today and sell off the next couple-- it would be a reaction to this ridiculous M&A activity. The overseas markets have begun to realize that something is up. Bubbles pretty much everywhere- the last time we had this much takeover action was off course the internet top. It's a fallacy I belive to make an valuation judgement on the market based off companies eagerness to buy each other. If Freeport wanted PD so bad why not make a bid a month or so ago when it was trading in the high $70's? One thing to keep in mind is last years end of year action we had our Santa rally going into Thanksgiving and for a day or two after we got back then we went down until the new money came into the market after January. It feels the same this year.
Taking a few shots today for some intra-day action......... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/20/ES_317_VB.png Buying conviction has dropped off a bit since the spike just after 09:30 cst.
These are my estimates for levels where a pullback might be a lot more possible than right now based on the daily chart. Possible divergences might occur at the following levels: Dow30 12425-12440 S&P500 1420-1430 Russell2k 800 Nas100 1820 I haven't got a clue if these divergences will occur though, just an estimated probability looking at the daily chart formations at the moment.