Completely agree 100%. If what you mean by prediction is how far and how long and how volatile and.. and.. and (how many dimensions can you pack into this baby!), in advance, yes, that's a path to failure. So you really want to minimize prediction, but.. At the same time, the exact same qualities, can be used to adapt. I also think the differences in opinion here is semantic, and am glad you brought it up, and fully respect that notion.
I agree, but for different reasons of nailing 10%, at some point whether trading futures, stocks, options---you don't want to become the majority of the market, then exchanges get involved and become like Hunt brothers. When account is smaller and you know what you doing, it is possible, but when account gets a great deal larger and you been making that 10% on some lighter traded instrument, now what? Nothing is predictable, since your heart been ticking last upteen years, will it be ticking in five seconds? We all take our chances. Just like you bought 1,000 shares of a stock and waiting for earnings, and last 15 quarters it has beat the street, the news goes out and the stock tanks 15% on very positive results. You were playing it to what your pattern was but still coin flip. Making money in the markets is not that hard, keeping it is very difficult, knowing when it is reversing and get out just before, very hard.
Predicting fundamental "events" is 10x harder than technical outcomes. Good example of "stock tanks on very positive results". Why? may be because despite good earnings a pharmaceutical company had a major drug research "disapproved" by the FDA or a competitor makes an announcement of better research that makes former's drug pretty much obsolete sinking losses of several billions in research. How will you predict that even after talking to head of research several times who was so upbeat not knowing competition was working secretly on a better research. Although a very metaphysical topic but as to how the price charts in a "subliminal" manner predict the fundamental "events" is a big mystery and then "also" suddenly some chart patterns fail and prices go the other direction. Very tough !!!
Price action is not predictable? True for most people. However, Renaissance Technologies would disagree. Of course they see what others don't and do what others can not. (Or maybe I do not understand what you are saying)
My insight... The only predictable pattern i can see on charts is "Trial & Error method", which I label it as "No Pattern". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_and_error My intuition... There is some amount of creative imagination needed to choose your momentum. My skill... I agree... provided the trader is fully aware of the momentum.
Probably this may be of some help. I just picked up some interesting analogies from this thread... Wave Analogy: Generally speaking, trading is more about catching a wave than trying to predict one. Catching waves implies observation about what is happening NOW. Do surfers predict waves into the future, or do they see them forming in the present and try to catch a ride at an opportune MOMENT. Car Analogy: Much like driving a car in unfamiliar territory, you react to the circumstances as you see them occurring. I don't normally associate driving with predicting; there may be a rare moment of "intuition" here and there based on years of experience, but mostly, you're reacting to your environment on the road. Flirt & Dance Analogy Trading the market is like flirting, or dancing, with a woman...you have to see and sense her mood and signals. You don't just simply flirt and flirt and dance and dance your Own way like a redundant jackhammer.
Kind of anticipated this is gonna be interesting thread,but you disappointed me here! If i only participated in this momentum or this momentum i would made money. That's too shallow!
I would say trend and range with reasonable volatility are momentum friendly zone, where properly selected momentum has an edge. Otherwise trends and ranges like any other pattern has no edge on its own. I have never heard more crazy theory than the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It says market price reflects all the possible information and investors can NEVER beat the market. But market price is just reflecting the information which is ever changing. In other words market price reflects PAST information and ZERO present information. It means market price is just a creation and investors are its creators. This view is exact opposite to EMH.
You call it shallow. I call it simple and effective ! “All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope” ― Winston S. Churchill ... and momentum.
Most of us remember lots of spam-threads with lots of superficial fluff and annoying copy-paste But there are some content in the discussion above, especially the occasionally rare cases of people embracing the paradoxes. When people start repeating themselves over and over again, now that's just moronic