Physics Vs Prediction in Trading

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rajesheck, Jan 30, 2018.

  1. I think we're getting a bit too much into the weeds here. So let's just agree that we define "prediction" differently. There are some people who think they can predict a move before it begins, and predict how far it will go (and when!). To me, that's full on prediction. I don't buy into it. I personally regard reacting to the market's activity as a distant cousin, at best, to any notions of "prediction." Beyond that we find ourselves in the realm of semantics.
     
    #21     Jan 30, 2018
    rajesheck, tommcginnis and Simples like this.
  2. polaris

    polaris

    The driving a car analogy is put forward incorrectly. When trading at the extreme right hand side of the chart...in a car, nothing can be seen forward of the front bumper. The only information you possess, is of the road behind you. Good look with those junctions.
     
    #22     Jan 30, 2018
    bpr and Simples like this.
  3. ET180

    ET180

    Pull up a chart of FISV and tell me that there has not been a predictable, buyable pattern there since 2011. The most simple pattern is a trend. I bet you also believe in efficient market theory and all that random walk crap.
     
    #23     Jan 30, 2018
  4. Handle123

    Handle123

    I trade based only on stats of the past, history repeats. Will it repeat when trade goes in? No clue. But works for me.
     
    #24     Jan 30, 2018
    ET180 and polaris like this.
  5. Only when I don't change the oil in my charts.
     
    #25     Jan 30, 2018
    tommcginnis and polaris like this.
  6. polaris

    polaris

    Precisely, nobody knows the future, but that doesn't mean to say we can't make a profit.
     
    #26     Jan 30, 2018
  7. ironchef

    ironchef

    Can you kindly explain and expand on your statement. I have been told over and over again here on ET that chart reading is not about prediction of the future moves?

    Thanks.
     
    #27     Jan 30, 2018
  8. toc

    toc

    10% a month? how many top guns out there on retail and institutional level gain 10% a month each single month.

    Anyone giving 2% a month, year after year is in the top 1% of traders.

    Also, price patterns "are" predictable and you have to be able to predict when a pattern will work and when it will fail.

    This ability and inability is "one of the several tough factors" which make trading the most difficult business out there.
     
    #28     Jan 30, 2018
    tom2 likes this.
  9. In conclusion: Trading is part art, part science, :confused: o_O -- Which I've been saying since Day 1.

    Most linear-minded, stubborn, dumb people...believe you either have 100% future prediction abilities, or nothing.
    They fail to have a malleable, grey, dynamic mind.

    Trading the market is like flirting, or dancing, with a woman...you have to see and sense her mood and signals,
    You don't just simply flirt and flirt and dance and dance your Own way like a redundant jackhammer.

    I know what I'm talking about, because I am what you would call...Elite,

    I've been staring at the daily Dow and Spy charts daily for the past eight years. I would dare challenge anyone to trade/predict/manage it against me. -- even maybe mythical Japanese trader CIS, but he trades Japan's main index...so it wouldn't be an absolutely fair competition.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2018
    #29     Jan 30, 2018
    rajesheck likes this.
  10. MACD

    MACD

    How please, Sir Luger, would I accept your challenge? (BTW, What's in it for me?")
     
    #30     Jan 30, 2018