You seem to be caught in the conventional wisdom. Luck is a concern of this set of people. Review how your mind got to the beliefs you have associated with luck. It is not a consideration for me and you have made it important. I used deduction as the only method to develop my methodologies. Luck is associated with induction mostly. From my point of view, you are not going to get anywhere simply because you have taken several wrong forks in the road. Se if you can figure out how the 90% failures people get to the end of the road with the fewest wrong descisions. It only takes 4 to break into the 90th to 100% failure percentile. 3 wrong choices gets you to 87.5 failure rate. I do not think it is too hard to reason that if a trend is not done on one day that the trend will be completing on the next day if you are trading intraday. From this idea, you can work back to the order of events of all trends. If you are position trading, most of the time a trade will take several days if you are trading on the fastest position trading fractal. There is a contest going on here that has a rule set that applies to position trading but it is required to be applied, unfortunately, to intrady trading. Every one loses as a consequence. To make money with it you can only trade the last day of each position trend.
I see the light! People like you make me believe that there is money to be made in the markets. Next time you trading bring more money with you.
I think a PhD with an emphasis on trading is a good idea but I wouldn't do it in Economics. I would do it with a Mathematical Emphasis with courses/research in the area of Stochastic Calculus, Time Series Analysis, Computational Finance, and such. I have a Master's in Quantitative Finance and you could probably say I have a PhD in Quantitative Finance, based on the years of experience I have and research I've done. If you're working with Excel I'd suggest you scrap that program in favor of Eviews. It's far superior to Excel. It's not cheap but read through the list of features it has and I think you'll see it's worth every penny. I use this program extensively. http://www.eviews.com/EViews7/ev7features.html
The "bring more money" part might be hard for Jack: http://boardreader.com/thread/Jack_Hershey_82_000_in_debt_and_has_no_a_16nbnX45xm.html
The market behaves more like pregnancy. The seed is planted and sets of Order Of Events ensue. Thus systems emerge and at any point in time, especially the Present, it is always known with certainty just what the status is. Markets have very few variables. The majestic element that brings closure to the use of statistics is granulaity of the market variables. The world of advanced studies on markets has not yet grasped the fundamentals and then the building blocks of market systems. The financial industries primary focus is on sales and marketing and bonuses related thereto. Money can be used as more than a commodity.
I'm the last person to defend JH, but maybe he is a tax protester and simply refuses to pay? The lien does not mean he is broke. surf
There is this aspect of the IRS as well: They have opinions on what is owed and what is owed comes as a consequence of some happening prior to the owing. Usually, I always have some current disaggrement with the trading related parts of the federal government. For the most part I am profiled. It has been fairly difficult to help the feds come to conclusions about what they think they are observing from data they receive ( the feds are allowed to look at what the regulations allow them to observe.) Once I saw the records the feds had over my lifetime (reduced to annualized data). It was unreal.
A Greek journalist this week narrowly escaped being sent to jail for exposing 2,000 Greeks with Swiss bank accounts and thus avoiding tax !! In Italy tax evading is a national sport. Will someone dare leak the other hot money accounts ( 3rd world dictators, organised crime etc.) ? I doubt it.