Doesn't help the OP though.... JH's method is more like the deconstructionists in comp lit departments.
Do you realize that these 2 paragraphs are contradictory? One gains an "intimate knowledge of market microstructure"... By trading professionally for a living for MANY years.... That means full-time obsession, leading edge technology, well-capitalized, etc. On the other hand, "academic papers" are written by people... That have a job job at a university or just graduate free-loaders... And because they fantisize about trading for a living... Accumulate 2nd hand information about another profession. When is the last time a serious Medical Journal... Published a paper written by people who are not doctors? And why are posts like OP always first posts (yawn 1,000,000 times) ? The "rocket scientist" can't even be bothered to participate for a while... In a noob forum like ET... Before announcing that he is a "rocket scientist".
The maths of forecasting the markets correctly continues to evade even the cleverest people.They can tell you what a star 1 billion light years away is made of but not what the Dow is doing come Monday. Just looking at the resumes of rich/top people, it surprises me how academically unqualified most of them are ? When the heads of the biggest banks in Britain were called in recently to answer questions posed by a committee of politicians, not 1 of them had a single banking qualification !!
There are a sector of traders who know how the open is going to proceed on each day. I certainly get into the market within 30 seconds of the open. I base my entry on my annotations of the prior day. It is not called predicting or forecasting. The status report of the market close is preciisely carried over into the beginning (open) of the next trading day. It is just a matter of the trend that was underway the prior day continuing until the end of the trend is reached. The better way to do this is to use a leading indicator of price which you trade. there are many myths about the Conventional Wisdom. you have a belief that it is posssible to forecast. you belief a brand of maths is used and it doesn't work too well. All trading happens in the Present. It is my belief that I am able to know What Must Come Next (WMCN) I do this by following a loop in logic. The loop is cyclic as anyone would surmise. For stocks I use a list of 8 events arranged in a proper order. By noting the element going on in the present, I just sit and wait for what I know to be the next element. To make money, I just take the ful offer of the market segment by segment. For commodities, the same principles apply but intraday trading has more complexity. Trends operate by the same principles but more precision is available since the leading indicator combines several fractals concurrently. Cleverness doesn't count for much. Knowledge and thoroughness is what counts. A common shared characteristic of knowledge and thoroughness is "work". Work comes about by applying a forces over time. By continuing to deduce, A person comes to the foundation and then he builds the complete system at work. So far you have avoided this process in each field you have observed without expending any energy. Be Do Have
you read all that? I could have told you yes, you stay in the game by protecting yourself from bad luck and sometimes you get lucky (if you call having nothing better to do than post on ET lucky)
Yeah, I red that. I am looking for some light to guide me through the markets and I thought that he is starting new church.
you wouldn't be the first one who got down on his knees and prayed when the market was moving against you they use to have a little Catholic chapel that was open 24 hours one time when Cattle were down the limit two days in a row, I went there the only other guy sitting in the aisle was another cattle trader who was a moslem and I was a jew