PhalanX - Real Time S&P 500 Predictions

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by RiskyShift, Feb 8, 2009.

  1. First of all I should be up front and say:

    I'm not here to sell anything, just here to prove in real time, that I have developed a breakthrough software capable of predicting the direction of Indexes such as the S&P 500.

    My goal here is to provide proof that my predictions come before the predicted trades. Too many people try to prove their systems with past results, when the only true way to prove it is with future predictions. It's very easy to make a system do well on past data.

    Some brief information about the predictions:

    Predictions are based on the S&P 500 not ES. ES is just a great way to leverage the trades, but it creates problems with the two not always behaving the exact same way. All predictions are based on the difference between the S&P 500's OPEN and CLOSE price. Predictions come in the form of a number such as 1.56, or -5.39. Positive numbers predict an increase in price, and negative numbers a decrease in price. The higher the number of the prediction, the more likely it is to be right. A prediction of 2.39 would be traded by buying ES at market open (9:30am) and selling at market close (4:00pm).

    This software took me 5+ years to develop, and I would never even tell anyone about it if I had the money to invest in it. My goal is to sell access to this system for a limited time to a small number of people to raise the money I need to trade the system.

    Past Results of predictions: (which you should disregard because you have no reason to trust me at this point)

    Predictions between 0 and 1.0 and 0 and -1.0 are averaging an accuracy of 63.64%

    Predictions between 1.0 and 2.0 and -1.0 and -2.0 are averaging an accuracy of 72.73%

    Predictions greater than 2.0 and less than -2.0 are averaging an accuracy of 83.33%

    Keep in mind it is impossible to be right all the time. The idea is simply to be right more often than you are wrong.

    I will post a new prediction here in this thread at the end of every trading day. I am also working on a website to post predictions on. I plan to post predictions for at least 2 weeks and possibly over a month.

    Disclaimer: I recommend that no one trade these predictions. I urge you to just watch them and evaluate their accuracy.

    Now for the prediction:

    Monday (02/09/09): -3.37

    This means there is a 80% or greater chance the S&P 500 will close lower than it opens on Monday 02/09/09.
  2. open : 868.24
    close : ?
  3. Mondays Prediction: -3.37

    Open: 868.24
    Close: 869.89
    Change: +1.65

    Prediction: Wrong

    Note: Sucks the first prediction here was wrong, but it happens... Mondays are tough due to the weekend. That said, wrong is wrong.

    Next Prediction:

    Tuesday (02/10/09): -3.35

    This means there is a 80% or greater chance the S&P500 will close lower than it opens tomorrow (Tuesday).
  4. Pekelo


    You got it only 5 points away from the close and that isn't so bad. I was expecting sideways and both -3 and +1 are in the sideway range, so we could look at it as a pretty decent prediction.

    The only problem is with the from open to close trade is that sometimes the journey (intraday movement) is more interesting and tradable than the arrival/close. Let's say we have a drop of 20 points with a V reversal, that is still a doji at the end of the day and no movement/profit for someone holding it blindly through the day...

    Also for trying to get a trackrecord C2 would be a better place but good luck with your journal!
  5. So, beyond the obvious logical failure, we're to assume you didn't see the futures falling when you posted to this thread?

    You can't scrape together the funds to trade a one lot? Get a job instead of looking for handouts.

    Your Tuesday prediction was made with futures down by 10 in the AH.
  6. If you cant put the funds together on your own by selling your system to investors your system isnt worth a dime. Finding people to put money in GOOD, ROBUST systems is a cake walk.

    The problem is when you have too much capital to devote properly.
  7. trendy


    Not sure how relevant AH action is, since his prediction is that tomorrow's close will be lower than tomorrow's open. We might gap down tomorrow and close higher. Who knows? Now, if he was predicting that tomorrow's open is lower than TODAY'S close, well then your point has merit.
  8. I should clarify that -3.37 does not predict a change of -3.37, it simply predicts the S&P500 will close lower than in opens. So the first prediction was completely wrong since it would have resulted in a loss.

    A -0.93 could result in a 100 point drop and still be correct (for my system). A -4.23 would also be right if it resulted in a 2 point drop.

    So a -0.93 indicates the same thing as -4.92. The only difference is the level of certainty or strength of the signal.

    The further the prediction is from zero in either direction, the more often it will be correct.

    A prediction of:
    2.34 = Good chance market will close higher than it opens.
    0.23 = Slight chance market will close higher than it opens.

    Predictions only predict the direction of the next days market, not how far it will move. (this is something I'm working on)

    Unfortunately, I have not yet found a way to accurately make multiple trades intra-day. This software just wasn't designed for it but I am looking into ways to adapt it. There is certainly more opportunity for profit there.

    I probably should know this, but what is C2?
  9. The issue is easily avoided by posting the signals immediately after the 4:15 close on futures.
    #10     Feb 10, 2009