PFX Commodities and Crosses Trading Outlook: 5 September 2008

Discussion in 'Forex' started by LearningMarkets, Sep 4, 2008.

  1. LearningMarkets

    LearningMarkets ET Sponsor

    REVIEW: 4 September 2008

    The ADP report and retail sales in the US rocked the equity markets to the tune of -74 points on the S&P 500. The move was reflected in a flight to quality with the 10-year note taking off and yields falling to 3.6%. The decline shows how fragile investor sentiment is and the breakout from a rising wedge in equities is a very bearish sign.

    In other news the market did not like the reports from the ECB and BoE. Traders do not seem to be very confident about either the future direction of monetary policy or the global economy. This means more volatility in the near term. When you combine this with a falling stock market, the GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY still look like interesting shorts.

    PREVIEW: 5 September 2008

    The big news tomorrow will be the official NFP report in the U.S. The ADP report may be a spoiler but there is still a lot of downside risk with a more negative than expected reading. At least in the short term, this could only exacerbate problems for the equity markets in the U.S., which is once again good for short traders in the JPY crosses. A surprise positive reading is unlikely but certainly possible. Either way, I would consider waiting until the report is officially released before taking on new positions.

    To see the analysis video, click here: