I also just noticed most of my losses (7,8,11,12,13) were playing a reversal off the 200 SMA! It is the blue line in the picture.
Hi Peter: I noticed your thread and want to offer some comments: First I agree with NihabAshi that you will find more value in using some indicators along with candles. I use an oscillator (Stochastic), volume (On Balance Volume) and a momentum indicator. Using indicators to contrast candles gives you a context and it will help you to make quicker and better informed decisions. I have had success with ADX, TICK and TICKI as well. A second point may help. Because you say that you focus on reversals and pullbacks, it may be important to manually go back through your intraday charts and mark those setups. What I would do first, would be to characterize what happens when the setup dosen't work. What is the volatility level? What is the volume prior to the setup? How far does the market pullback (some percentage of ATR) when the setup fails? An important question to ask is how changes in volatility affect the success rate of your setups. Hope this gives you some food for thought. Best Regards, Steve
Most of my entries from this past week in the NQ. Candles are 11 min bars, entry shown with yellow diamond. Below each entry is DAY/TIME (central time). WL= winning longs, WS = winning shorts, LL = losing longs, LS = losing shorts